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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Silver Super Bull who wrote (25979)2/7/2005 8:48:02 PM
From: NOW  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
I keep asking myself: who stands to benefit the most from a massive recession/depression?



To: Silver Super Bull who wrote (25979)2/9/2005 2:45:41 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
on battle of titans: inflation vs deflation

here is a nice little piece with gold as race car
what permits the car to reach high speeds is TRADE WAR

gold-eagle.com

They impede its operation, acceleration, and pathway. Added household debts act like low octane, if not dirty, gasoline which the engine cannot efficiently process into pure speed. Higher across the board material and energy costs act like so many bricks placed on the backseat and trunk, weighing it down. Stalled worker wages act like a shortening of the driver's leg, whose foot finds difficulty to keep constant pedal pressure. Foreign central bank interventions to block Asian currency exchange rate upward adjustments, as discussed above, act like a slipped transmission, the clutch unable to shift into the next gear. Federal Reserve interventions to forestall higher long-term interest rates and to monetize mortgage agency debt act like forewarned removal of debris from the roadway just over the horizon, sure to lead the driver to greater caution. The upcoming stall in housing prices will act like a powerful stiff headwind which the race car must fight against. Big hedge fund losses remove billions from the speculation, and commodity markets specifically, acting like a clogged air filter to inhibit air supply for gasoline combustion. Economic recession acts like the turbocharge switch turned off, since available money to push demand across the entire system would be absent. Money supply cutbacks as measured by the Fed, not so much from miscalculation as from a general report card on debt birth & default death, new business creation & failure, act like severe weather warnings which might order all cars off the road.

With such an excellent mainspring of power in the hard slow crash of the USDollar, which acts like an awesome aircraft carrier launch device positioned at race course intervals. The regular surge enables the race car to ultimately overcome all obstacles. Its speed will reach supersonic levels over time. Jumps in finished imported product prices lift the car off the road, sending it airborne. However, that will interfere with the US Economy in a very big manner, as consumption will be harmed unless wages rise in offset. Big stock declines among non-commodity (mainstream) shares act like a strong tailwind to assist the race car, not without turbulence from account margin calls. But do not be confused. The failed Fed Reflation effects almost all work to obstruct the race car and its frenetic acceleration to higher speeds in upper gears. The 1970 decade saw few if any inhibitions to the race car, as a clear path was reached in a matter of a few years. The Nixon Wage Price Freeze in 1972 inhibited supply, the exact opposite to today's massive demand. The Volcker Fed Reflation initiative had almost non-existent obstacle when put in force.

Now in 2004, the Chinese Factor makes the entire road an uphill course for the race car. They render pricing power as non-existent, take jobs from our economy, and bid higher the prices for raw materials and energy. The Chinese flag is emblematic of policymaker frustration and the assisted secular deflation phenomenon, completely absent thirty years ago during an unrestricted inflationary period.

it goes on