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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Amy J who wrote (67009)	2/9/2005 10:16:58 PM
From: Sr K	Respond to of 77400

The current stock price appears to be assuming dilution & no buy back or a peg lower than 1.5. The current stock price may not yet be reflecting 5% buy back or 330 million shares for $5.9 billion (for one year) and earnings of 22 cents a quarter or $5.8 billion. What's the shareholders' portion of that? Depreciation and amortization? What's the shareholders' portion from financing? Cash flow from options exercises? The dilution has already occurred by the in-place options programs. Whether it's a good use of cash to buy back the shares is a separate decision and choice. If earnings somewhat down the road are a real $1.50 per share, buying back shares at $18 is only an 8% after tax return. Not worth it. They should determine buy back levels to produce or aim for a 12% AT return. That might be around $12.50, in this example. If so, buying back at $18 is throwing away another $5.50 per share or $1.8 billion per year, IMO. They'd be better off buying less aggressively IMO and waiting for lower prices. Are they buying back every day, 5 hours a day ot more? Or do they step away a day or two a week?

To: Amy J who wrote (67009)	2/12/2005 8:48:01 PM
From: Eric	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Amy, Yeah things are really negative on tech right now. Tech is in my blood but I just don't see a killer app such as the Internet infrastructure build out in the early 90's! I do think that the tech application that will take off shortly is alternative energy stuff.. I have a vacation home in the San Juans of Washington State and I generate all my electricity via photovoltaics and make all my hot water with the sun also. BUT we need oil to get to about $60 per bbl for this to really fly. There are thousands of off-grid homes in the U.S. and the technology is pretty mature now. I like your natural gas idea.. Our shortage here is getting worse and I do not see that turning around. LNG will not be able to keep up with demand in the future.