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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (23649)	2/16/2005 12:03:14 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

not $17Million 17 million shares! During the first fiscal quarter of 2005, the company repurchased approximately 17 million shares of common stock at an average price of $17.30 per share for an aggregate purchase price of $300 million. No see my calc because that is how much they bought back. Even after the buyback there are 16 million shares less Mish

To: orkrious who wrote (23649)	2/16/2005 9:42:04 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

GLOBAL MARKETS-Recession, rate risks dog markets, Greenspan eyed Wednesday, February 16, 2005 2:14:16 PM reuters.com (Updates with Iran blast, analysts, prices) By Nick Edwards LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Recession and deficit worries gripped European markets on Wednesday ahead of testimony from U.S. Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan, with the yen at one-month lows, stocks off 32-month highs and bonds stalling. Reports of an aircraft missile strike in Iran unsettled markets further, sending U.S. crude oil <CLc1> higher, pushing stock prices lower and helping government bonds regain some ground. "This explosion basically sent chills down the spines of futures traders," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron Trading Corp in Chicago. "Oil prices reacted immediately and rallied up to the highs and this caused a corresponding drop in stock prices." Iranian state television said an unknown aircraft had fired a missile on Wednesday in a deserted area in the province of Bushehr where Iran has a nuclear power plant. It later said the blast may have been caused by a fuel tank falling out of an aircraft. But the report compounded the risk aversion evident in Europe after confirmation earlier in the day that Japan had slipped into its fourth recession in 7 years. That sent the yen tumbling to 104.96 yen to the dollar <JPY=> and 136.90 to the euro <EURJPY=>, jolting investors who on Tuesday discovered the euro zone was perilously close to contraction. Euro zone government bonds spent most of the day near the previous session's lows, with 10-year Bund yields <EU10YT=RR> rising as high as 3.526 percent, before gaining ground after the Iran blast and pushing March Bund futures <FGBLH5> to the day's high, up 30 ticks at 120.44. Traders were nervously waiting for any hint from Greenspan that the pace of U.S. rate hikes might speed up as he begins two days of testimony in his semi-annual policy report to U.S. lawmakers. Stock traders were looking out for potential upsets from Greenspan, with the FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> falling 0.8 percent from 32-month highs to put it on target for its worst daily decline in more than a month. "The risks, from an equity point of view, have to be on the downside," said Rolf Elgeti, a strategist at ABN AMRO in London. "It is clear that part of the support equity markets have had over the past two years has been the cheap and ample liquidity that the Fed has pumped into the world's financial system. Any noise that there might be less liquidity available could and should be taken negatively," he said. Futures prices <SPH5> <DJH5> <NDH5> were already indicating a softer start for Wall Street shares before falling further after the Iran blast. U.S. crude oil <CLc1> firming 74 cents on the day to $48.00 a barrel was another negative for stock investors who are increasingly focused on the risk of margins being squeezed by rising input prices that companies have so far failed to pass on fully to consumers. Oil, already $6 above the average price for 2004, has been stuck in a $45-$50 a barrel range since January, raising the prospect that OPEC producers might cut supply to boost prices. Traders meanwhile were waiting for a weekly U.S. government report at 1530 GMT that is expected to show the first rise in crude oil stocks for three weeks. But inflation fears eased to some extent in Britain thanks to the Bank of England's quarterly Inflation Report which sounded less hawkish than many in the market had expected. RISKS TO THE DOWNSIDE The BoE revised up slightly its profile for consumer price inflation, saying the risks to economic growth and inflation were "somewhat to the downside". Sterling <GBP=> fell broadly in currency markets on the strength of that statement while gilt futures <FLGH5> surged and short sterling <FSSH5> rallied. But risks to growth are exactly what stock investors fear as they try to gauge how much longer companies can continue to generate the healthy profits that have enabled them to return billions of dollars to shareholders over the past 12 months. Among companies posting results, BHP Billiton <BLT.L>, the world's biggest miner, was 2.4 percent firmer after reporting that it more than doubled its first-half net profit on soaring demand for commodities. The $2.76 billion net profit beat market forecasts. Shares in Reuters <RTR.L> fell as low as 392-1/2 pence before rebounding to gain 2 percent as the global news and information provider posted better-than-expected full-year profits. Dealers said they were confident an 80 million pound restructuring charge, higher than originally planned, because of one-off costs of moving to a new London headquarters would not hit earnings in 2006 or diminish cash returns to shareholders. Two hefty share placings also weighed on the market. Norway's government said it would sell 100 million shares or 4.6 percent in energy group Statoil <STL.OL>, worth around $1.7 billion. Spanish bank BBVA <BBVA.MC> sank 2 percent as Spanish construction company Sacyr Vallehermoso <SVO.MC> abandoned plans to build a bigger stake in the bank and started selling up to 106 million shares in BBVA. Earlier in Asia Tokyo's Nikkei 225 <.N225> index fell 0.4 percent on the recession news, in contrast to the MSCI Asia Pacific Free ex-Japan index <.MSCIAPJ> that edged up to fresh 7-year highs, though trading across asset classes was cautious ahead of Greenspan's testimony. Shares crept higher by as much as a third of a percent in Hong Kong <.HSI>, Singapore <.STI>, Taiwan <.TWII> and South Korea <.KS11> following strength on Wall Street on Tuesday. U.S. stocks were driven to 2005 closing highs by upbeat January retail sales data and an unsolicited $3.25 billion bid for Circuit City Stores Inc. <CC.N> from a private investment firm.

To: orkrious who wrote (23649)	2/16/2005 9:45:40 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. Jan. housing starts rise to 21-year high - Wednesday, February 16, 2005 1:52:35 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) - New construction on U.S. houses unexpectedly rose by 4.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.159 million, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday It's the highest level of new construction in nearly 21 years Construction of new single family homes climbed 2.7 percent to a record 1.760 million annual rate, the government said December's construction rate was revised higher to 2.069 million from 2.004 million estimated a month ago. Most economists expected a decline in new construction in January to about 1.93 million, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch Building permits - a signal of future activity - also rose in January, climbing about 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.105 million The construction and real estate industries are forecasting another banner year in 2005, even if activity slips from 2004's pace as the Federal Reserve boosts short-term interest rates. Despite six rate hikes in the past eight months, long-term interest rates, such as mortgages, have actually fallen Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan will testify later Wednesday on Capitol Hill to give the Federal Open Market Committee's official forecasts for growth, inflation and jobs Greenspan will likely be asked about anonymous comments made at the December FOMC meeting showing that at least some members of the committee believe the Fed may be fostering speculative bubbles in real estate and related fixed income markets with its low rates Greenspan has often said he does not believe there is a national housing bubble in the United States In January, the South showed the largest gains, rising 18.8 percent to a 21-year high of 1.139 million units started. Starts were nearly flat in the West, while starts sank 23.9 percent in the volatile Northeast market and dipped 12.5 percent in the Midwest The housing data are subject to large sampling and other statistical errors. Seasonal adjustments can be particularly tricky during winter months The government cautions that it can take up to five months for a new trend to be established in starts. Over the past five months, starts have averaged 1,999 million, up from 1.971 million a month ago In 2004, a total of 1.957 million units were started

To: orkrious who wrote (23649)	2/16/2005 9:51:20 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Mortgage applications slip; refinancings remain strong Wednesday, February 16, 2005 12:20:21 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) -- The volume of mortgage applications slipped 0.5 percent in the week ended Feb. 11 compared to the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The weakness was seen in both applications for mortgages to buy homes, down 4.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, and refinancings, down 4.1 percent. Refinancings accounted for 49.9 percent of last week's total applications, up from 48.9 percent a week earlier, with adjustable-rate mortgages falling to 30.7 percent from 31.9 percent. Average contract interest rates were higher for fixed-rate mortgages, with the 30-year mortgage rising to 5.50 percent from 5.48 percent and the 15-year mortgage climbing to 5.09 percent from 5.06 percent. The rate on a one-year ARM dropped to 4.10 percent from 4.24 percent, the MBA's data showed

To: orkrious who wrote (23649)	2/16/2005 9:54:55 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK Jan claimant count falls 11,000 to 813,200; lowest since June 1975 UPDATE [How can jobs be so strong in the UK? - Mish] Wednesday, February 16, 2005 9:55:59 AM afxpress.com (Adding further details) LONDON (AFX) - Further evidence of tightness in the labour market and increased pressures on wages emerged today, as official figures showed that the number of people seeking unemployment benefits dropped to its lowest level since June 1975 The office of National Statistics reported that the claimant count measure of unemployment fell by 11,000 in January to 813,200, well below analysts' expectations for a much more modest drop of 3,500 The claimant count has now fallen for three months in a row For the latest three months, the claimant count unemployment rate fell to 2.6 pct, its lowest level since April 1975 In December, the claimant count was revised downwards to a fall of 8,300 to 824,200, with the rate at 2.7 pct Meanwhile, the number of unemployed, as measured by the internationally recognised International Labour Organisation, rose by 32,000 in the three months to December to 1.14 mln, the biggest rise since Feb-April 2003 The unemployment rate stayed at 4.7 pct for the third three-month period running As expected, there were also rises on the earnings front, presenting further food for thought for the Bank of England's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee The figures -- which will have been seen by the MPC in advance of the quarterly inflation report to be released later this morning -- are likely to raise concerns about wage inflation and could lean the UK's rate-setters towards a rate hike as their next move rather than a cut Average earnings, excluding bonuses, in the three months to December rose by 4.5 pct from the previous three months, the biggest rise since January 2002 and above expectations for a rise of 4.4 pct Including bonuses, the statistics office said average earnings were up 4.3 pct in the three months to December, up 0.1 percentage points on November and slightly below expectations for a rise of 4.4 pct A National Statistics official said the picture of how much bonuses are being paid this year is not yet clear. At the moment it looks like firms are paying slightly less in bonuses than they were last year, but some of the larger bonus-payers appear to be paying out bigger bonuses this year The season for bonus payments usually runs from January to March Findings of the latest labour force survey (LFS) revealed that total employment rose by 90,000 in the three months to December to 28.52 mln, while the employment rate for people of working age rose 0.1 percentage points to 74.9 pct, its highest level since June-August 1990 Meanwhile, manufacturing unit wage costs rose 1.0 pct in the three months to December from a year earlier National Statistics went on to report that manufacturing productivity rose by 3.9 pct in the three months to December when compared with the same period the year before. Elsewhere, NS said manufacturing employee jobs fell by 104,000 jobs to 3.24 mln in the three months to December compared with a year ago. This was the lowest level since comparable records began in 1978

To: orkrious who wrote (23649)	2/16/2005 10:02:27 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

EU ministers to focus on stability pact reforms, aviation fuel tax Wednesday, February 16, 2005 7:41:14 AM afxpress.com BRUSSELS (AFX) - EU finance ministers will focus on narrowing their differences over planned stability and growth pact reforms as well as mulling a proposed tax on aviation fuel during talks here today and tomorrow, sources said The EU's Luxembourg presidency expressed the hope that ministers would make progress in narrowing their differences over the reforms aimed at making the pact more flexible "The objective is to make progress on all fronts with a view to reach an agreement in March," Martine Schommer, Luxembourg's ambassador to the EU, said at a briefing She said without elaborating that progess has been made in several areas since ministers met last month, but added that there are "others on which there are still options open". Sources said ministers are keen to agree on the broad outline of the reforms ahead of their leaders' summit in March, so as to have more influence over the final outcome European Commission spokeswoman Francois Le Bail said ministers would discuss the aviation fuel tax initiative to be proposed by Germany's Hans Eichel as a way of funding extra development aid. "And it's very likely the Ecofin will ask the commission to make an inventory of alternative sources for development financing," Le Bail said She said the commission would only back the imposition of an airline fuel tax under certain conditions Among other things, the commission must be satisfied that such a tax is "not a hindrance to the competitiveness of airlines" The commission would also want to be sure the money raised would be on top of the existing aid effort of member states, and that it went to development needs, she said Another item that could come up at the ministers' gathering is the commission's row with Italy over its banking stance, even though this is not on the agenda Internal market commissioner Charlie McCreevy is awaiting a reply to a letter he wrote to Bank of Italy governor Antonio Fazio last week expressing concerns about media reports that Italian banking policy is protectionist Fazio was quoted at the weekend as claiming Italy's banking sector was the most open in Europe to access by foreign banks "The Bank of Italy examines each proposal for merger or significant stakes", Italian or foreign, "applying national and EU rules", the Corriere della Sera reported him as saying And Italian economy minister Domenino Siniscalco has said the issue came up at the ministers' meeting last month "On that occasion, I have said that Italy does not have a protectionist attitude, but that it is simply attentive to the reciprocal opening of the markets of other countries," he said Equally, ministers could decide on the successor to Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa on the European Central Bank's executive board after the Italian's term expires in May Italy has proposed Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi, the economy ministry's director for international financial relations, for the post