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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (23788)	2/17/2005 11:41:50 AM
From: kailuabruddah	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

I think it's a combination of everything you mentioned... this looks like the spike of new homes at the top... the teaser lenders play a role too... this has all the feel of the herd buying at the very peak... We should - as spring gets underway - start to see: - increase in inventories - Month-over-month DROP in median prices in bubble markets as the popular press continues to report the year-over-year rise in prices... until about May/June - then, we should start to read about year-over-year drops... at that point, the flippers are screwed... and that should have a fairly strong effect on the rest of the RE industry (already seeing it in the stocks of LEND, RDN, MTG, ZIPR, SAXN, PMI since the start of the year) - the disconnect between those stocks and the homebuilders is pretty noteworthy... in other words, one of those groups is going to be wrong...