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To: LPS5 who wrote (10051)2/17/2005 9:13:54 PM
From: Raymond Duray  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 20039
 
OT OT OT

Re: Yes; as counterintuitive as it may seem, considering every possible financial product ranging from lowly common stocks to, say, a lookback quanto volatility swaption: if over the same period of time their cashflows are alike, they should be - or will over time mean-revert to - similar valuations.

John Maynard Keynes famously said that "markets can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent."

And LTCM proved him right.

Good luck with your "reversion to the mean" analysis. I hope it doesn't completely destroy you. I'd enjoy seeing you wallow in your misery from betting heavily on the rationality of the market. Shadenfreude, and all that jazz.