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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (24619)	2/28/2005 9:19:17 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Respond to of 116555

I can't say I disagree with that thesis. New home sales are the well-font.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (24619)	2/28/2005 9:31:31 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

My theory is that the housing market is putting in a rolling top. The MBAA purchase index is the way to track this. The peak was probably in the Nov-Dec period. I believe we need to see several weeks below 400, or even 380 to confirm a rollover. With rates spiking the way they have the last few months, this seems increasingly likely. 10- 20 461 10-27 441 11-3 496 1 year Libor 2.53% 11-10 483 11-17 480 11-24 463 12-1 460 1 year Libor 2.96% 12-8 491 12-15 489 12-22 471 12-29 484 1-5 417 1 year Libor 3.10% 1-12 393 head fake? 1-19 448 1-26 439 2-2 440 1 year Libor 3.27% 2-9 445 convexity trade keeps hope alive 2-16 423 2-23 418 3-2 below 400 ?? 1 year Libor 3.53%