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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (27599)3/2/2005 12:17:01 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
Is it just me, or is this a bogus my dog ate the homework excuse? I was in So. Calf during some of this weather, and by contrast it was like a pleasant day in Oregon in February. I'll bet more houses are flipping back out of escrow (due to "unexpected" rate increases). I count 20 (in comparison to 106 new pending transactions) back out of escrow year to date in the "hot" downtown San Diego market. Are we now entering the "white lies", as we know everything will return to normal phase of the cycle?:
sdcondo.com

M.D.C. Holdings Reports January and February Home Orders and Preliminary First Quarter 2005 Earnings Outlook
Tuesday March 1, 11:55 pm ET

DENVER, March 1 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: MDC; PCX: MDC) today announced that it received 2,736 home orders in January and February 2005, compared with the 2,685 home orders received for the same period in 2004. This represents the best start for a first quarter in the Company's history, despite the difficult comparison created by the 32% year-over-year increase in home orders achieved in the 2004 first quarter, and despite the wet weather conditions experienced in key western markets this year. Although MDC's current practice is to report home orders on a quarterly basis, this information is being provided to comply with Regulation FD in anticipation of communications with the investment community this week. Detailed information on 2005 first quarter home orders will be provided in April.

Home orders in Arizona particularly were strong due to consistently high demand for new homes in this market. The Company also received significantly more home orders in January and February 2005 from its newest markets in Texas, Utah, Florida, Philadelphia/Delaware Valley and Chicago than in the same period in 2004. Similar to the 2004 fourth quarter, these increases partially were offset by lower home orders year-over-year in Nevada and California, compared with the extraordinary levels experienced in these markets during the first two months of 2004.

MDC also announced that earnings per share for the first quarter of 2005 should exceed considerably the record $1.38 earnings per share posted in the first quarter of 2004. However, construction and development delays resulting from adverse weather conditions have occurred in several of its markets, most notably Southern California, Nevada and Arizona. As a result, approximately 200 home closings originally scheduled for the first quarter of 2005 may be delayed to later periods. The Company believes that the impact of these delayed home closings may cause earnings per share for the first quarter of 2005 to be slightly below the low end of analyst estimates for the quarter of $1.80 per share, which represents a 30% increase from the same period in 2004. MDC anticipates that the affected divisions can recover from these weather-related challenges and recapture the delayed closings by the latter half of 2005. Therefore, although the total year results may be more back-end loaded than previously anticipated, MDC's expectations for record full year 2005 revenues and earnings remain essentially unchanged.