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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (27630)	3/2/2005 3:19:55 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

It's a pretty good post. Think the next rate hike is the final tipping point (push) for the housing bubble. Also think the key for everybody is not to get to hung up on deflation/inflation, bond bull/bear diametrics right now. Things are just too unstable for that, and the players (such as the secondary FCBs, or even China) might just go for a chair in the musical chair game and cause even more unstability. Even though you've described the situation correctly on EDs, I'm just personally hesitant to get involved with it (at least seriously). Of course the short side is difficult too, as the trading desks and financial institutions (they) aren't making new consumer loans right now, Message 21093258 so they are more heavily involved in playing Pig Men/Bully asset Bubbles and ramps than ever. Ironically, all this nonsense goes on while the economy is going into a swan dive. wallstreetexaminer.com I suspect if this continues "they" will just go ahead and run oil up to $65 on speculation for instance. <As for walmart shelves, they can remain full if no one is buying> There's enough wealth in the US that can be liquidated that a large group of people can still take care of basic subsistence items. Therefore, scarcity becomes a big issue in my scenario. The US free ride on inexpensive goods and vendor financing will end. Any kind of resource supply disruption will just aggravate that. Did you see how dependant both China and the US are on commodities and resources? Take a hard look at how parabolic and unsustainable those charts are, especially for profitless enterprises that hang in only because of borrowing and printing presses. earth-policy.org There will have to be an economic brick wall to halt that. The world economy has just outstripped it's resource capacity, and probably for the next decade. And China is wrecking it's peoples health and their environment in the process too. Message 21086917 The US in turn has wrecked it's people pocketbooks in debt binge. Heck, I used to think Lester Brown was a bit of a crackpot, but now he's nailed it. There will have the be an "adjustment" (translate Train Wreck) to correct this.