FYI...this was forwarded to me from a biotech message board--sounds like an angry, frustrated long w/ more than one conspiracy theory, and I disagree that tysabri is not the culprit (avonex has a long safety record)...but seems like grains of truth at least in the fact that Wall Street likes BIIB, and that insider sales may only result in hand slapping...:
from BIIB mesaage board : elsa
A word from a Elan shareholder 1
by: fundi00
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Sell 03/02/05 08:14 am
Msg: 31349 of 31557
Dear board,
First, I admit to be ELN shareholder. Secondly, I happened to know some
of BIIB highest management personally. So I welcome any reaction from
this board, but first listen, if you have 3 minutes :
How can anybody, and in particular shareholders of ELN, after all they
went through these past years, be naive enough to go on believing what
is being explained currently ??
The combination trial Tysabri/Avonex, to my knowledge a development
strategy never seen to introduce a new drug, was entirely Biogen's
marketing responsibility, made to avoid or lower the risk of loosing on
Avonex sales. This combination trial idea should in fact have been
disapproved by the FDA for security reasons upfront.
Now, we have 2 cases of a one per Mio disease, hard to distinguish from
flamboyant MS, and both in the combination trial group, both in
patients taking numerous other drugs, including steroids, which are
known to exacerbate precisely such situations (slow virus).
And guess which drug is withdrawn - Tysabri !
Guess which patients are checked in the coming months : Tysabri
patients ! What about untreated MS patients, patients under all other
MS drugs, steroids, etc ? Too much effort, eh ? How can you possibly
imply a responsibility of Tysabri or Avonex without such data ? Ever
heard of statistics ? Or is the FDA simply as blind on one eye as the
SEC was in the case of Elan ? Remember the recent Cox 2 inhibitor story
? Ever heard of the thousands of deaths under marketed non-life saving
drugs, such as Viagra ? Or of the neurological complications of other
potentially life-prolonging new drugs such as TNFa inhibitors ?
Instead, what will happen is what happened to Vioxx. Tysabri will be
re-allowed, probably with some warnings that are statistically
completely unfounded. The damage for Elan, however, is done, not proven
guilty of anything of course. But doubt, thanks to our friends the
analysts remains, don't they ? That's exactly the situation Elan and
their shareholders are in the meantime so used to (SEC). Behind this,
however, and for the time being at least, there is a - lets put it very
mildly - highly unfair player here : Biogen, prospering on a at less
efficacious and most probably not safer drug - at the expense of, yes,
the patients, which they claim to want to protect (at the expense of
Elan of course).
to go on...
Who therefore can be so naive, under these circumstances, to believe
that withdrawal of Tysabri only was the only option ??
More relvant perhaps : who has to win here ?
The patients to be "protected" ? No way, the best and safest available
monotherapy is withheld from them.
Biogen ? You bet : perhaps this was the only way to assure Avonex sales
at least in the near future. This "partner" of ELN is finally showing
its real face, something that, to me at least, is clear since years, if
only the apparent naivity of Elan management had bothered to think
about it.
Serono, TEVA ? Of course, just see their share price.
The SEC ? You bet : they got Elan back to where they wanted them within
a day after not getting any sort of prove of wrong doing during 3
years. Is BIIB going to be persecuted for the very obvious insider
trade ? Of course not. The guys at BIIB could only take that risk,
because they are assured they won't be touched. After all, BIIB is an
American company and a Wall Street darling, Elan obviously is not.
But fact is : BIIB should be persecuted by SEC like Enron or Martha
Stewart was. Then watch where the share price goes. And, don't feel to
safe. This time Biogen clearly went to far !
The analysts ? Well, who care's. They simply write for their employer
or the company that pays best. It doesen't take much brains to realize
how corrupt these guys are. Just watch their flipping comments from one
month to the next, for any stock. But unfortunately they rule psychosis
Wall street is suffering from.
Ok, I unloaded. Thanks for listening. Now you guys can fall on me. Will
appreciate it,
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