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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (24907)	3/4/2005 8:45:00 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK Feb house prices fall a monthly 0.5 pct - Halifax UPDATE Friday, March 4, 2005 9:42:42 AM afxpress.com LONDON (AFX) - UK house prices fell in February, according to a closely-watched survey of the sector, countering recent findings suggesting that the housing market is showing renewed signs of life The Halifax, the UK's largest mortgage lender and part of the HBOS PLC banking group, said house prices in February fell 0.5 pct from the previous month, following two successive monthly rises That pushed the annual inflation rate down to 12.1 pct, its lowest annual rate since December 2001, from 13.7 pct in January and well down on the 22.1 pct peak recorded last July The monthly decline has pushed the average price down to a seasonally-adjusted 162,816 stg, the Halifax added The Halifax's reading offsets the 0.5 pct February rise recorded by the Nationwide, the UK's largest building society, earlier this week. George Buckley, economist at Deutsche Bank, noted that the Halifax series has been weaker than the Nationwide over recent months. Since August, the former has risen a total of 0.9 pct, while the latter is up by just over 2 pct However, Steve Pearson, an analyst at HBOS, said that on an annual basis they track well, with all major surveys currently suggesting a moderation in house price growth to around 10-12 pct year-on-year Though the Bank of England's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee does not directly target house prices, it has been noticeable that it has not raised the cost of borrowing since August, when the slowdown in house price inflation emerged Between November 2003 and August 2004, the MPC had raised interest rates a quarter point on five occasions, taking its key repo rate up to 4.75 pct But with the Nationwide and others reporting renewed house price vigour, a consensus is slowly building that at least one more rate hike may be on the cards in the months to come Proponents of this argument are urging the MPC to act now, and decisively, to prevent an inevitable collapse in the housing market, with all the damaging economic fall-out that would entail Others reckon that the machinery is already in place to rein in inflationary pressures stemming from rampant consumer demand, particularly in the housing market "We continue to expect that house prices will fall more aggressively towards the middle of this year, particularly if the long-run relationship between prices and approvals (the latter published earlier this week) remains intact," said Deutsche Bank's Buckley The Halifax is not predicting any marked decline in prices and reckons more stable market conditions are returning, with estate agents reporting a rise in the number of sales agreed and a levelling out in the level of new buyer enquiries following a marked decline in the second half of 2004 And with the labour market strengthening, the housing market remains supported, said Martin Ellis, Halifax's chief economist

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (24907)	3/4/2005 8:49:14 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

U.S. Feb nonfarm payrolls up 262,000, above expectation By Greg Robb WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy added 262,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department estimated Friday. This is the largest monthly increase in payrolls since October. In the separate household survey, the unemployment rate rose to 5.4 percent in February from 5.2 percent in January. Economists were expecting payrolls to grow by about 221,000 in February and for the unemployment rate to remain at 5.2 percent. Gains in nonfarm payrolls in January and December were revised up by a total of 6,000. Average hourly earnings were unchanged at $15.90. The average workweek was steady at 33.7 hours. ================================================================ Little reaction in treasuries or Eurodollars UP slightly. Market had priced in more with all the jobs hype as we discussed yesterday Mish

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (24907)	3/4/2005 8:57:24 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK earnings rise at ´marked´ rate as employment growth eases - REC Friday, March 4, 2005 10:26:21 AM afxpress.com UK earnings rise at 'marked' rate as employment growth eases - REC LONDON (AFX) - Earnings growth in the UK continues to rise at a "marked" rate even though the increase in employment slowed to its lowest level in 19 months, a survey of the labour market found today Despite the easing in employment growth, the Recruitment & Employment Confederation and accountants Deloitte found that relatively strong demand for staff drove a further round of pay inflation in February, at a similar "marked" rate to the previous month That may worry the Bank of England's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, which has been warning about the inflationary impact of a tight labour market The last official figures showed that average earnings, excluding bonuses, in the three months to December rose by 4.5 pct from the previous three months, the biggest rise since January 2002 Including bonuses, the statistics office said average earnings were up 4.3 pct in the three months to December, up 0.1 percentage points on November and slightly below expectations for a rise of 4.4 pct The MPC has raised the cost of borrowing a quarter point on five occasions since November 2003, taking its key repo rate up to 4.75 pct, as it sought to stem inflationary pressures arising from above-trend growth and rampant consumer demand However, it has kept its base rate on hold since last August as evidence of a slowdown, particularly in the housing market, emerged But the potential impact from rising earnings as well as some resilient consumption data have raised expectations that there may be another hike to come in the months ahead The report's authors also said it is crucial to address the cumulative impact of legislation and red tape to competitiveness and employment creation In particular, Gareth Osborne, REC's managing director urged government to avoid the introduction of any legislation, in particular the current draft of the EU Agency Workers Directive, which he said could damage temporary employment prospects Unemployment has risen sharply across the euro zone in recent years while the UK has witnessed a sharp fall in the number out of work, partly because the labour market is far more flexible and can accommodate more temporary and part-time employees

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (24907)	3/4/2005 9:05:33 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Statement of Kathleen P. Utgoff Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday, March 4, 2005 Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 262,000 in February, with job gains occurring across a range of industries. The unemployment rate returned to 5.4 percent in February after dipping to 5.2 percent in January. Employment in professional and business services increased by 81,000 in February. Within this sector, temporary help services added 30,000 jobs over the month, following 3 months in which employment was little changed. Since its most recent low in April 2003, employment in this industry has grown by 374,000. Elsewhere among professional and business services industries in February, employment was up in architectural and engineering services and in services to buildings and dwellings. Several other industries in the service-providing sector contributed to the overall employment gain in February. The health care industry continued to expand, adding 23,000 jobs. Food services employment also remained on its growth trend, increasing by 27,000. Retail employment was up by 30,000 over the month. In the financial activities sector, employment in credit intermediation and in real estate continued to trend up. In February, construction employment rose by 30,000, following no gain in the prior month. Job growth in construction was likely subdued in January due to unusually severe weather conditions in some parts of the country. Over the last year, construction employment growth averaged 23,000 per month. Manufacturing employment was up by 20,000 in February; much of this increase reflected automotive workers returning from temporary layoffs. A few other manufacturing industries had small job gains in February. Overall, manufacturing employment was up slightly over the year; however, it has shown little net change since mid-2004. In February, factory hours were down by two-tenths of an hour, while overtime edged up by one-tenth of an hour. Average hourly earnings of private production or nonsupervisory workers were flat in February, following a 5- cent increase in January. Over the year, average hourly earnings increased by 2.5 percent. Most labor market measures from the survey of households were little changed in February. The unemployment rate edged up to 5.4 percent over the month, returning to its December level. The jobless rate was either 5.4 or 5.5 percent in each of last 6 months of 2004. The labor force participation rate held at 65.8 percent in February and was about the same as a year earlier. Among those who were not in the labor force, the number who were marginally attached to the job market, at 1.7 million in February, was little changed over the year. About half a million of this group cited discouragement about their job prospects as their reason for discontinuing their job search. This also was about the same level as a year earlier. In summary, payroll employment rose by 262,000 in February and by 2.4 million over the past year. The unemployment rate was 5.4 percent, essentially the same as in the last half of 2004.