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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (27855)	3/4/2005 9:02:09 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

I don't think Cu will crash, it will (or may) correct, probably in conjunction with a major slowdown or severe downturn coming out of Asia. It's just in too short supply to crash, and in fact a hard correction that lasts awhile will just serve to set up even greater supply shortages as projects get delayed. Think gold may outperform Cu, but NTO is primarily a Cu producer. Again the NTO looks like a IBD type momo play, so the next week or two may be interesting. In this market we can see stocks separate from underlying fundamentals for awhile. CNQ is ilustrative about how this works. I bought this around 37, then made the mistake of writing 45 calls (because the premiums were good) just as the IBD crowd jumped seriously on board. I was fooled because the MF suddenly dropped off right before the new high breakout at 45. You see this little game being played all the time now. That white candlestick you see lifting out, was a broker buy recommendation that kicked the momo guys in. The Pig Men really know to play this game right now. stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G This suggest that six days after today's high vol break out could even be premature. MNG is another one that's broken out from a nice base. It has a real strong accumulation, money flow look that makes one suspect a big buyer (major or mid tier). Acting like MRB did stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G before Noranda revealed it's 8% position. It looks good to run towards 1.34-1.38, where it will need some help to get through overhead. The way I play this will be to sell a 1/3 there, unless volume is stil running very high. stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G