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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (39800)	3/5/2005 1:18:09 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 206195

>>>At some price we will mine the tar pits in Canada<<< done been done

To: jim_p who wrote (39800)	3/5/2005 3:49:16 PM
From: Taikun	Respond to of 206195

jim, <Cycles are caused by the fact that there is a time lag of 12-18 months before a spike up in energy prices results in lower demand and the fact that it takes 12-24 months before new supplies> Well, we aren't adding refining capacity and the majors aren't adding reserves, so yes, 'this time is different'. New demand from China and India, plus demand for building SPRs in Asia are barely being met by the market, Venzuela wants to cut supplying the US, Iraq is pumping less than 3 yrs ago. Yes, this time is different. Using WTI at $42 gets you some pretty big numbers on these E&P plays. D

To: jim_p who wrote (39800)	3/5/2005 6:05:19 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 206195

jim p..... a voice of reason, reality & experience. Just right about when many will need it the most. Very well said. - Excellent food for thought. What more can anyone ask for...you can't buy an Oilpatch Analyst Research piece with that honest & experienced perspective anywhere on Wall St right now (whodathunkit ?)...and it's "free" right here on SI courtesty of His Doggedness & the original Master P (vbg). You touched on something that "should" (and will...when, not if) be getting as much forward thinking (and money) from savy Oilpatch Investors as the Oil Sands are.... "LNG" Anyone want to be Early to the next major party ? Think LNG Congrat's to all who have done so well here. Just don't forget to pay yourself... often & well ! - because if you don't; the market sure as hell won't...history has shown what always happens in cyclicals...maybe that's why they call them "cyclicals" ? History...learn it & respect it; or be destined to repeat it. Not so long ago: OSX: Oil Service & Drillers May 2000 - OSX 136 July 2000 - OSX 80 The OSX lost - 42% in less than 8 weeks May 1998 - OSX 122 Aug 1998 - OSX 47 The OSX lost - 62% in less than 1 Qtr XNG: Natural Gas E&P Dec 2000 - XNG 273 Oct 2001 - XNG 166 The XNG lost - 40% in 9 months March 1998 - XNG 370 Aug 1998 - XNG 208 The XNG lost - 44% in 5 months HUI: Goldstocks July 19 2002 - HUI 133 July 29 2002 - HUI 94 The HUI lost - 30% in just 6 trading days PS: I guarantee you, that there are EXPONENTIALLY more investors that live in 10,000 Sq Ft Dream Homes...that don't fail to pay themselves "often & well" in Cyclicals; than there are those that were successfull in trying to defy both the mathematical odds & history itself...in trying to buy & hold the next Intel, catch a mystical ride on the next New Paradigm Play Du Jour, or in trying to be the last Bull standing on a cyclical run. And if you want to wait untill Mr. Market takes you out... review those stats above... because, take you out - he will ~ Usually hard & fast...and he usually does it directly into the peak of sentiment,earnings and commodity price momenteum. Guar-an-damn-teed ~ With all this focus on Commodities and with Oil & Gas dominating that focus of late....One last reality check: ;) finance.yahoo.com

To: jim_p who wrote (39800)	3/5/2005 6:29:05 PM
From: excardog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206195

Are you married yet? Your words on oil should be heeded but I refuse to ask you for marriage advice.<g> Scott

To: jim_p who wrote (39800)	3/5/2005 7:42:59 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 206195

Jim, two things 1) China has 4 times the US population so I wonder how valid a per capita comparison is... There are 300 million folks in China making basically most of the money (recently acquired)... so maybe 1/10 is not a good stat.. 2) What if China finds it doesn't need US consumers anymore and can get by on domestic demand ? (They are developing a consumer economy). They revalue the renminbi and all raw materials are suddenly cheaper? I do not see China slowing down. 3) is it really good for the US if oil tanks ? These are only questions though and not a manifesto.. I realise with you and Slider on the same side of the fence I'm swimming upstream on this ... :O) And I know we haven't really run out of oil and gas yet (Yes Simmonds is a perma bull) Wondering I'll be picking up COS.UN @ 35$ CDN again :O) Kastel Edit is this outside the box ? too far ?

To: jim_p who wrote (39800)	3/6/2005 11:00:30 AM
From: diana g	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206195

Hi Jim, I have great respect for your experience and have found your input very useful many times. I hope you won't see my disagreeing with you or questioning your conclusions as an attack or as disrespect. It certainly isn't meant that way. I have a point to ask you about. You wrote: "...You have the choice of learning from history and playing the oil cycles and making a lot of money, or trying to get that last 10% out of the market and losing 50-100% of your hard earned gains in a matter of weeks once the smart money leaves..." If memory serves, you've been calling the top at least since last September? You've repeatedly called a top in the OSX 120-125 area? Since that time the OSX is up 20% and many of my favs are up 50-60% and more. Clearly that's not the "...last 10%.." of the up move, you have to admit. I know that when in the past the sector has sold off it has gone down quickly. But I think that at this point I could get out of my positions before a move down to Sept levels even if I had to send in the 'sell' orders by dogsled to NYC. ---- I don't mean to seem to pick on you for being wrong in Sept '04 and since. My record of being wrong is as poor as anyone's and I'm not casting any stones. And anyway I like the way you call it like you see it. ---- But here's the question. Since you were wrong then (in Sept & since), what do you see now as the reason you miscalculated then? What made you wrong the last 5-6 months about the cyclical top that is different now? regards, diana