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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CapitalistHogg™ who wrote (16000)	3/6/2005 6:17:36 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Bighogg, Yes, this is definitely a massive binary event. If the results are good, the stock could go to perhaps $18; if bad, maybe $6. So that call spread looks like it hits it about right; but unhedged long doesn't look so bad either. I just don't have a clue on the chance of success - but if you look at the stock price and my guess as to price on the two outcomes, the market is saying the trial is not going to be successful (or the market is disagreeing with me on the price upon success). FWIW I have a small unhedged long position myself. Peter P.S. Speakiing of binary events, still anxiously awaiting the CTIC Xyotax outcome, presumably this week.

To: CapitalistHogg™ who wrote (16000)	3/7/2005 4:49:51 AM
From: Robohogs	Respond to of 52153

The vols are in the mid 100s - very, very high. Pricier than the ELN options. Puts for April are very very expensive and so are the puts, as one would expect. Market is saying this is definitely a one way or the other move. Jon

To: CapitalistHogg™ who wrote (16000)	3/7/2005 10:33:20 AM
From: Arthur Radley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Hogg, Concerning your question and statement about LGND and the option activity on Friday, this is what B. Shaeffer has to say about the activity.. Ligand Pharmaceuticals Ligand Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:LGND) is a biotherapeutic and biopharmaceutical concern that specializes in what Hoover's describes as "small-molecule drugs that interact with hormone-activated intracellular receptors." On August 3, the stock dropped almost 40 percent after steeply missing analysts' earnings expectations for the second quarter and announcing the surprise departure of its independent auditor. Since this one-day drubbing, LGND shares have failed to recover, struggling to break through the glass ceiling into double-digit territory. This week, the stock declined below potential double-bottom support in the 9.5 region to reach a new four-month low. There are signs of skepticism brewing on LGND, but this is not a surprise given the security's poor price action. As such, the contrarian implications are not as strong as they might be if pessimism was prevalent on an outperforming issue. For example, Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for LGND weighs in at 0.42, which is higher than 84 percent of all of the past year's worth of SOIR readings. This reading could experience a decline come Monday morning, however, as both out-of-the-money May 12.50 and May 17.50 calls have seen notable activity cross the tape in today's session. The May 12.50 call has seen more than 10,000 contracts trade on open interest of nearly 19,000 contracts, while the 17.50 strike has seen almost 25,000 contracts cross the tape on open interest of only 6,899 contracts. Popular theory would suggest that many of these would translate as new open interest on Monday. Skepticism is also rearing its head among the short-selling community. Last month, the number of shorted LGND shares rose 27 percent to its highest reading since July 2003, representing 16.7 percent of the equity's float. What's more, the current short-interest ratio on LGND stands at 8.9 days to cover. But remember that for a short-covering rally to ensue, the stock must give the bears a reason to wish for an exit. Click on the following link to see the Daily Chart of LGND since December 2004 With 10-Day and 20-Day Moving Averages: schaeffersresearch.com.