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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: diana g who wrote (39988)	3/9/2005 5:39:01 PM
From: CommanderCricket	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206322

This latest run from early January has been traders paradise for the E&P's. It's been a hoot trading positions in DVN, TLM, MHR, PXD and VPI for 2% - 3% scalps. Glad I wasn't on the sidelines waiting for the pending sell off. You can almost taste the fear as we climb higher. It's great to see the ole gang back to debate this again. Keep us bulls in line - VBG What I can't figure out and have not seen is where is the supply? Where's this wall of oil coming from? If you look from a NA perspective, everything looks great as inventories are ok and rising but globally there is a huge problem. EIA has found religion with it's increasing demand forecasts. I called a buddy last night to check up on what's happening in Tianjin. Short story, can't find employees, can't breath the air and the economy continues to boom. No changes since my visit in December. Energy is a major problem in Northern China and the quick fix is more crude. I don't see a let up in demand anytime soon. Michael

To: diana g who wrote (39988)	3/9/2005 5:44:59 PM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206322

if I didn't think you were likely to spend it on fast living and loose women Should you have a cause more noble, please let me know. I guess I could spend it on wives like Mr. Jim. big Reminds me of the Texas oil man that went to the bank wanting to borrow $2 million (two Texas units). The banker said, "I just loaned you a few million last year. What happened to that!!!???" Tex replied, "Well I spent a million on gamblin', and a shade over a million on drinkin' and wimmin. The rest....well, I just pissed that away on foolishness."

To: diana g who wrote (39988)	3/9/2005 8:23:54 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206322

Diana, Boy oh boy oh boy oh girl. It really is old timers' week in Big Dog's kennel. And what has brought everyone out of the woodwork and out from under various rocks? Volatility, fear and loathing, a unique blend of ego and fear and greed and uncertainty. It's really amazing to see how people want to dictate to the market where a top will be. Why is it amazing? It's as if the first $10 of a move off the top is worth more than the next $10, or $20, on the way down. If OIH or OSX has really made a top and will come down there will be many many fine opportunities to short/ buy puts once the trend has reversed. What can we say about the OSX? Well, that is a nasty candle today and probably will be followed by a down candle tomorrow. Or not. What we have with the OSX is, for now, a strong pullback in an uptrend. If you go back to Dec. 6 or so you can see a similar pattern which formed and actually took the OSX below the 20 and 30 emas for about 7 trading sessions. When folks are getting very very very excited about a top there are a few things you can count on, but first and foremost is that it is unlikely to be the top. But if 4 sessions ago was indeed the top, you can expect to see something in the next few days: first, you'll see the OSX take out the 137 level, and perhaps bounce off 136. If it only rises a little and then turns down strongly, there's a good argument that at least a medium term top is in and prudent punters can look to try to snag some downside profits with selected puts. What's another explanation for all this volatility based greed and fear? I believe the prospect of $60 oil has a lot to do with it. In fact, didn't we do the $50 oil conniption last November December, when the OSX did an excellent imitation of a perfect head and shoulders breakdown, which never materialized (that is $116 was not a shortable play but rather put-suicide for those who determined they could predict the then-top in the OSX). In any event, while it is great fun to predict tops and hoot and holler about them, this one has more work to do to go from being a simple pullback to a correction. Kb

To: diana g who wrote (39988)	3/9/2005 10:53:26 PM
From: Proud Deplorable	Respond to of 206322

Diana, everyone and his brother has been calling for a pullback so I'll just climb the wall of worry and get "hung out to dry as a long" LOL its all rubbish to me because this is not a cyclical story anymore. Anyone can see that. Traders are glued to their screens and play the swings but they rarely understand that things ARE different today and all of Bushes propaganda artists on CNBC etc will not stop the inevitable depletion of oil and energy....and water and electricity yadd yadda. Oil is headed to 60.00 and then 70 and then 100 and yes....give it some time and its going way over 100.00 And Uranium will bot go away just because traders are trying to knock it down so they can reload after making bad decisions to sell earlier. Wake me when my car runs out of gas, until then I'm driving in one direction. Asleep at the wheel ;-)