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To: energyplay who wrote (61013)3/14/2005 3:46:47 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Respond to of 74559
 
<where some Russian expert say Avian flu could kill 1 Billion people >

It all depends on the response people make. If we get a vaccination in a year, the numbers killed might be not even 1%. But if we get a full-fledged good old plague, as in Europe where a third of the population were killed over a few years, there could easily be 2 billion of us killed.

Or even 4 billion if we all get a dose and the 75% mortality rate holds.

This has got serious possibilities of dramatically reducing sales of CDMA devices and QUALCOMM profits. This is not a good situation.

A vaccine would be good.

Mqurice



To: energyplay who wrote (61013)3/14/2005 3:58:22 PM
From: redfish  Respond to of 74559
 
A UK expert opined that 1 in 30 people in the UK would be killed by it, so he is not quite so dire as the Russian guy. Still a horrifying possibility.

Pandemic scares almost always turn out to be illusory, but this one has me a bit worried.



To: energyplay who wrote (61013)3/14/2005 5:10:35 PM
From: Henry Niman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Yes, getting to 1 billion is easy. A pandemic affects 1/4 to 1/3 of the world's population, and H5N1 has a case fatality rate of 70%. 70% of 1.5 billion exceeds one billion.

However there is some evidence for a trade-off between transmission and fatality rate. Here are the genetic reasons why the pandemic is inevitable

news.google.com