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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (28707)	3/16/2005 9:27:49 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, I think the MBAA mortgage index is one of the most accurate piece of data available. When rates spike up, applications do pick up as procrastinators finally jumps on board for the last harrah. We (a few old friends in the industry) were talking about housing in San Diego yesterday. Permit process is very slow, especially for anything less than fully entitled lots. So today's housing starts number is clearly not a leading indicator and even FNM's economists pointed out before that housing starts do not necessary imply housing sold. There is a tsunami of condo conversions in process right now. None of us knew how many but each of us know of some. It could be in the thousands on top of the thousands of new condos still being built or in process downtown. This is going to be ugly. Any pop in the homebuilders, MIs, mortgage related, subprimes could be one hell of an opportunity. I also wonder about GM and specifically GMAC. Is that going to hurt, or benefit the other subprime lenders?