Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (25814)	3/17/2005 9:30:48 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Yes they WANT to hike rates. But they wont. If they hike it will be because growth is there. I suggest they will not because growth will not be there. Now they may hike any if inflation gets out of hand. Again they want to hike because they think rates are too low. But they will not do so if inflation remains contained. Mish

To: zonder who wrote (25814)	3/17/2005 9:31:48 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Which I see happening easily in 4Q05. Perhaps even a bit before, depending on how the year goes. We can easily be in a worldwide recession by then. Mish

To: zonder who wrote (25814)	3/17/2005 9:34:04 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK govt to ´wait and see´ on nomination of Wolfowitz as World Bank chief [gee this turkey is so bad our own best buddy will not even support him - mish] Thursday, March 17, 2005 12:02:46 PM forexstreet.com UK govt to 'wait and see' on nomination of Wolfowitz as World Bank chief LONDON (AFX) - The UK government has declined to endorse or reject the candidacy of Paul Wolfowitz as president of the World Bank adding that it would prefer to "wait and see if there are other candidates." A Downing Street spokeswoman said the government did not want to get into a running commentary on the selection procedure, adding that ultimately the decision is one for the bank to make Wolfowitz, currently the deputy US defence secretary, was nominated yesterday by US president George Bush in a highly controversial move "We will be having consultations with the US and others about the appointment (but) it is a matter for the Bank to decide," the spokeswoman said "Let's wait and see if there are any other candidates and wait for the outcome of the (selection) process," she added Wolfowitz is considered a leader of the US "neo-conservatives", who pushed for war in Iraq and have argued that building a democracy there will spread reform throughout the Middle East, drying up support for extremist violence Outgoing World Bank chief James Wolfensohn is due to step down in June after a decade in office

To: zonder who wrote (25814)	3/17/2005 9:40:23 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Schroeder pledges steep cut in corporate tax to boost economy, employment [Mish prediction - offsetting tax hikes will be a burdon and no jobs will be created] Thursday, March 17, 2005 9:35:12 AM forexstreet.com (updates with details of tax cut proposals, measures to offset cost) BERLIN (AFX) - Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder proposed cutting corporation taxes to 19 pct from 25 pct in order to stimulate growth and reduce Germany's soaring jobless figures, which last month hit 5.22 mln In a speech to the lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, he said local companies are currently labouring under a higher tax burden than their foreign rivals, adding that "the government will act" to resolve this anomaly The blueprint for an official tax reform programme is a due to be presented by year-end, "but I am convinced that we shouldn't wait until then" "I want to send a clear, additional signal for generating higher levels of growth and employment." For "innovative middle-ranking businesses", meanwhile, loans at 2 pct points below market rates will be available from the state-owned bank, Kreditanstalt fuer Wiederaufbau (KfW), he said To offset the cost of the proposed tax cut, Schroeder also announced plans for, among other proposals, a lowering of the minimum taxable income threshold and a further dismantling of Germany's system of tax subsidies Schroeder, who is due to meet opposition leaders later today for a crisis summit aimed at considering new ways to create jobs in the eurozone's biggest economy, also announced a 2 bln eur investment package for the transportation sector.

To: zonder who wrote (25814)	3/17/2005 9:44:44 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

China central bank tightens credit on fears of inflation - Merill Lynch Thursday, March 17, 2005 8:13:43 AM afxpress.com BEIJING (AFX) - The central bank's latest moves of raising mortgage rates and reducing the interest rate on excess reserves indicate the government will continue to tighten macro-economic policies in the second quarter on fears of inflation ahead, Merrill Lynch said The People's Bank of China (PBoC) tightened control over real estate loans and said it will cut the interest it pays on excess reserve deposits of commercial banks to 0.99 pct from 1.62 pct currently The bank set a floor lending rate of 5.51 pct for housing loans of more than five years. That minimum rate, which took effect today, is 0.2 percentage point higher than the 5.31 pct preferential home loan interest rate "These policies look conflicting. However, the government is unlikely to loosen its measures against the backdrop of the strong growth momentum," said analyst Marvin Wong He said the the PBoC now allows commercial banks to determine mortgage rates, in line with ordinary loans, which effectively corresponds to an interest rate hike. Commenting on the excess reserve deposits rate cut, he said it was another step towards China's interest rate liberalization. "The PBoC wanted to encourage banks to be more efficient in liquidity management and capital utilization," he said "We expect measures to control credits to the 'hot' sectors to remain firmly in place," he added February CPI rose to 3.9 pct year-on-year on higher food prices compared to a 1.9 pct rise in January Fixed asset investment in the first two months of 2005 rose 24.5 pct year-on-year to 422.2 bln yuan, well below the growth rate of 53 pct in the same period last year and down from the 25.8 pct rate for all of last year

To: zonder who wrote (25814)	3/17/2005 9:49:41 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

EU industry group UNICE cuts euro zone 2005 growth forecast to 1.8 pct vs 2.2 Thursday, March 17, 2005 10:45:21 AM afxpress.com BRUSSELS (AFX) - EU industry lobby UNICE cut its euro zone growth forecast for this year to 1.8 pct from 2.2 pct and warned of uncertainty ahead "The growth slowdown of the European economy is confirmed," UNICE said in its latest six-monthly economic outlook "The European economic performance remains disappointing, particularly as compared with our main competitors," it said UNICE forecast growth rising slightly to 2.1 pct in 2006 as a result of internal demand "However, it remains uncertain whether some timid signals of improvements in Germany will materialise and be strong enough to overcome the reversing trends in other countries," it cautioned UNICE said the rise of the euro against the dollar and other currencies is the most immediate risk to the euro zone's growth While European business has so far been able to limit the fallout from the euro's strength, countries such as Italy and Spain are already suffering from a loss of competitiveness and would be hard hit by a further rise in the single currency, it warned "An exchange rate remaining about 1.30-1.35 usd will significantly hurt the European economy," it said On euro zone inflation, UNICE raised its 2005 forecast to 2.0 pct from 1.9 pct, and projected an easing to 1.9 pct for 2006 It said members regard the European Central Bank's interest rate policy as appropriate because it has managed to release sufficient liquidity and minimise inflationary risks despite high oil prices "Low inflation and the fragile state of the economy do not seem to require any change of overall stance of monetary policy at least in the first half of 2005," it said

To: zonder who wrote (25814)	3/17/2005 9:55:57 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

ROUNDUP Schroeder proposes tax cuts, investments to kickstart German economy Thursday, March 17, 2005 12:28:44 PM afxpress.com BERLIN (AFX) - German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder proposed cutting corporate taxes to 19 pct from 25 pct and invest 2 bln eur in transport projects in a bid to reduce the country's soaring ranks of the unemployed Schroeder unveiled the measures in a speech to the Bundestag lower house of parliament, adding that he will unveil a radical overhaul of the tax system in the autumn He said local companies are currently labouring under a higher tax burden than their foreign rivals, adding that "the government will act" to resolve this anomaly The blueprint for an official tax reform programme is a due to be presented by year-end, "but I am convinced that we shouldn't wait until then" "I want to send a clear, additional signal for generating higher levels of growth and employment." The eagerly awaited speech was to be followed by a crisis summit later in the day with opposition leaders aimed at considering new ways to create jobs in the eurozone's biggest economy, where unemployment has reached 5.22 mln In order to fund the tax cut, he proposed to save money by closing tax loopholes, lowering of the minimum taxable income threshold and reducing subsidies, and he called on the opposition to back him He also said the government will make it more difficult for companies to offset previous losses against tax "We have to work seriously together to abolish these tax advantages," he said The 2 bln eur funding injection, meanwhile, will boost "investment in increased mobility and the German construction industry", a sector which is particularly ailing Schroeder's proposals were immediately condemned as "insufficient" by Christian Democratic Union (CDU) chief Angela Merkel, one of the leaders invited to the job summit "The chancellor is at best a repair man, but he is no architect of a new social market economy," she told parliament In a letter to Schroeder that prompted him to organise the summit, the opposition leaders set out a 10-point plan to encourage job creation, including cutting taxes for small and medium-sized companies, creating better legal conditions to encourage employment and lowering unemployment insurance Turning to specific measures to create jobs, the chancellor announced a 250 mln eur scheme to help people over 50 "Social cohesion for our society is not a luxury that we can simply cast aside in difficult times," he said About 12.6 pct of the workforce is unemployed in Germany, the highest figures since 1945, according to data from February A controversial package of measures designed to inject new life into the labour market, known as Hartz IV, was introduced on Jan 1 but it is too early to see its effects [what is Hartz IV? It sounds like a dog heat worming product on sale in the US - mish] Mish