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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: benwood who wrote (29085)	3/22/2005 12:04:18 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

Some of these changes will be delayed until the RE bubble bursts and the long term fiscal reality of the average bloke finally sinks in. Exactly It is about all that matters Mish

To: benwood who wrote (29085)	3/22/2005 12:29:34 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

the latest issue of Wired has a fauning cover story on the Prius. apparently monthly sales of this vehicle closely track oil futures!

To: benwood who wrote (29085)	3/22/2005 12:31:32 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

also, i have to think that long term, high oil is a very bad negative for some RE hotbeds like Hawaii and SoCal, which are so dependent on cheap fuel. the move in the long-dated futures this past week is just amazing. they are up 100% from a year ago.

To: benwood who wrote (29085)	3/22/2005 1:38:56 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Great post and I totally agree. Though I wonder what to make of those who perhaps have already made it, have wealth beyond anything they would have ever thought 10 years ago and are debt free. Sounds like a huge gap between the generations that some have quietly talking about a revolution by the younger and (or) the more highly leveraged. Live by the housing and credit bubble and die by the housing and credit bubble?

To: benwood who wrote (29085)	3/22/2005 2:40:49 PM
From: regli	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

I contend that the RE bubble will be hit even worse BECAUSE most of the developments were based on the faulty assumption of continued low energy prices. In Dave Lewis’ latest he has a nice quote from Greenspan in 2004: Much of the capital infrastructure of the United States and elsewhere was built in anticipation of lower real oil prices than currently prevail or are anticipated for the future. This statement doesn't just apply to infrastructure but also and especially to housing. The best example from my perspective is L.A. The growth in the Inland Empire cities (i.e. Victorville, Barstow, etc.) is simply incredible. However, the combination of traffic and distance results in hours of commute time into many areas of the L.A. basin. Given the fact that there will be no economical way to commute (no viable public transportation) these developments will drop in value much faster and much lower than currently anticipated.