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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (40567)	3/22/2005 5:04:01 PM
From: mred1998	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206223

Slider - High Oil/Nat Res. prices as a weapon against China? Ahhhh, very interesting and creative idea. And I agree that it may take $100 or more oil prices to pull it off. I don't see any signs that $50 oil had much effect though. If you like high probability plays, wouldn't you wait until there are signs that the roll over has occurred before shorting? I think we are years away and another doubling in oil prices before China succumbs to this oil weapon. What will energy stock prices do in the interim? Deployment time for alternative energy, nukes, conservation, LNG are years in the future. How many can wait years to DRIVE to the grocery store or pick the kids up at school? Where is the threshhold of gasoline price pain for behaviors to change in a meaningful way? And if we prolific users here in the USA cut back, how many nuvo rich in China and India with a new car take up the consumption slack? I repeat, there will be pull backs and corrections in energy stocks and prices, but the longer term trend is inexorably up for at least 6 years or $120 oil, which ever comes first. The easy money will be on the long side.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (40567)	3/22/2005 5:16:58 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206223

>>> We also can not allow China to build the Economic & Militaristic means to threaten the status of the USA as the sole Global Super Power. <<< They are already fast at building that military. China will have a full fledged Navy within two years. A pace that has been much quicker than anyone anticipated. dabum

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (40567)	3/23/2005 12:35:44 AM
From: ihor43us	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206223

Hmmm, China dying from high CL prices. Don't think so. Here is why: 1. China does not need to keep their money pegged to the US$. 2. We are stuck with the US$. 3. Much of the oil price increase is due to the drop in the US$. In terms of the Euro, the increase is not so bad. 4. China - Europe trade > China - US. China is also building internal demand as well as increasing trade with other Asia countries. 5. When the cost of resources gets too high for China, they can unpeg. 6. Cost of oil (and all resources priced in US$) will drop. For China, not the U.S. of A. Then they will use much less that 7 times as much resources as Japan in $10000 worth of product. WalMart prices will go up. So will our trade deficit. 7. $100 CL will harm us much more than China - there is a limit to how much of our debt the world will buy. Guess how much our trade deficit will increase if CL hits $100 per bbl? Do you really think that we can foist that much more paper on the world? I don't. We are in much more danger from high oil prices than China. BTW, they still know how to ride bicycles. Ever see an obese American on a bike? Hilarious. Ihor