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Gold/Mining/Energy : Oil Sands and Related Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jimsioi who wrote (339)	3/23/2005 4:14:11 AM
From: Taikun	Respond to of 25575

Jim, <Do they have control of lands that are "prospective"> I'm not sure I know those propective lands. Do you mean land aside from the 1.4m oil sands acres and 800,000 shale oil acres? The market may become more discriminating here and it might be easier to justify prices when the company is near or in prodn. That does not favor companies with no prodn, like UTS, CWPC. (UTS does have a deal). I also agree that companies with unquantified reserves are riskier. UTS did the PCZ deal after quantifying 2.8 billion bbls in place. CWPC, CLL, PBG, POU aren't there. POU hasn't started yet to estimate bbls in place, so I give them some slack. CWPC has spent years and has no reserve estimate, CLL may report something, PBG is just starting but has estimates of oil in place. Of the ones in construction, BVI, DCE, UTS and OPC. Only OPC has no estimate of reserves. I'm not sure that makes it riskier. BVI seems to have good management and has prodn. UTS will not be in prodn until 2010. DCE, Q3 2005 600bpd pilot, 2006 for next Phase (10,000bpd), OPC has a pilot (1800bpd)in prodn now, major prodn in 2006, 2007 for upgrader. As I've said before, because of the trust structure, COS.UN/OST.UN is probably the most defensive of all of the oil sands plays. D

To: jimsioi who wrote (339)	3/23/2005 5:18:08 AM
From: Proud Deplorable	Respond to of 25575

"You have no revenues, and your operating results, profitability and future rate of growth depend solely on your ability to successfully implement your business plan and your ability to raise further funding" Geee sounds like a call I just received from my bank manager. I just told him..hey look I'm still breathing ain't I? I told him to visualize that the Universe has an abundance of everything including money and that if he were any kind of kewl dude he would rob Peter to pay Paul. What me worry? There is lots of money out there. ruthannzaroff.com

To: jimsioi who wrote (339)	3/23/2005 7:39:25 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25575

Jim, I will not be surprised to see oil in the $40-45 range over the next few weeks. That could impact the oil sands names despite positive news at the company level. I still have positions in most of the names, but reduced significantly. There may be rallies to trade but I'm looking to make a major reentry in the low 40's. About the only factor that could derail the continuation of this selloff would be some geopolitical event, but since the refinery fire didn't move oil at the end of the day, I'm not sure a Nigerian or Norwegian strike would be enough when Q2 demand drops 1-2m bpd anyway. I think we might see some nice entry points in out favorite names over the next several weeks. D