To: TimF who wrote (226369 ) 3/25/2005 10:42:21 PM From: Road Walker Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1572924 Spending or tax cuts... what does the Congressional Budget Office think - CBO FIGURES INDICATE LOWER REVENUES, NOT HIGHER SPENDING, ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGE DEFICIT As a Share of the Economy, Revenues to Hit Lowest Level in 54 Years by Isaac Shapiro and Joel Friedman The Congressional Budget Office’s new report on the federal budget demonstrates that the return of large budget deficits is more a reflection of diminished revenues than, as some have recently implied, of increased spending. CBO estimates that revenues in 2004 will drop to historically low levels, their lowest level as a share of the economy since the Truman Administration. Spending, in contrast, will not be at a particularly high level. As a share of the economy, spending will be lower in 2004 than it was in every year from 1975 through 1996. On the revenue side: CBO projects that revenues will fall to 15.8 percent of the economy in 2004. This is the lowest level since 1950. (The figures in this analysis focus on revenues and spending as a share of the Gross Domestic Product, labeled here as the “economy.” The Gross Domestic Product is the basic measure of the size of the economy. Measuring spending and revenues as a share of the economy is the standard way that economists and budget analysts examine changes in the levels of revenues and spending over time.) CBO projects that income tax revenues (including both the individual and corporate income tax) will equal 8.0 percent of the economy in 2004. This is the lowest level since 1942. Without the tax cuts enacted in recent years — which will reduce revenues by $264 billion in 2004, according to Joint Committee on Taxation estimates — revenues as a share of the economy would not be close to a historically low level. Key Facts That Emerge from the CBO Data In 2004, as a share of the economy: Federal revenues will fall to their lowest level since 1950, during the Truman Administration. Federal spending will be lower than in every year from 1975 through 1996 (and thus will be lower than throughout the administrations of Presidents Carter and Reagan and the first President Bush). In explaining the shift from a large surplus in 2000 to a large deficit in 2004, the drop in revenues since 2000 accounts for more than three times as much of the fiscal deterioration as the increase in expenditures. more: cbpp.org