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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pompsander who wrote (27759)	3/26/2005 4:50:44 PM
From: clix	Respond to of 60323

If ... retail prices didn't drop the 15% SNDK had estimated in their last cc, and SNDK continues cut production costs, should be a pretty good quarterely report coming up. Something interesting here. In the US, Sandisk and Lexar together control 67% of the flashcard market and no other single company has more than 10%. The same is true of USB drives. Since Lexar isn't driving any retail price cuts, it would seem that Sandisk can write its own ticket, and have as good a quarter as it wants. I think what we are seeing is very aggressive pricing from Sandisk, which seems to be foregoing a classic semi opportunity to make a bundle while it controls the market, in an effort to make it less appealing for more competitors to enter (both in NAND manufacturing and in flashcards).

To: pompsander who wrote (27759)	3/27/2005 12:25:18 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 60323

If the Lexar cc comments about strong flash demand in Q1 are correct, and no reason to think they are not...and retail prices didn't drop the 15% SNDK had estimated in their last cc, and SNDK continues cut production costs, should be a pretty good quarterely report coming up. It is hard for me to see how they wont have a great first quarter. The spot and retail pricing both seemed relatively flat for the quarter versus the -15% that Sandisk had guided for. On the supply front, it would seem to me that the risks were much greater last quarter....the 90nm ramp from 50% to 90% should be relatively routine. If they only meet expectations, I can almost guarantee that the market will be disappointed. Of course, the real question is the guidance for the coming quarter. Anecdotal information would seem to suggest that supply and demand are getting more into balance. For the first time, the Apple Shuffle is now listed as shipping on the same business day on the Apple website. Also, Sandisk is now offering a $14 rebate on 256MB and 512MB SD cards on Amazon (as well as a $18 rebate on a 512MB CF card). OTOH, I think we are going to see sales of Memory Stick Pro Duo cards take off in the second quarter with the launch of the Sony PSP. We will also see the launch of several of the MP3 enabled handsets that were introduced at the wireless shows in the past few months. The question for the second quarter might be how many PSP/MP3 enabled handset owners purchase an after market memory card. These types of sales havent taken off yet, but a big part of the attraction of these devices are the MP3 players....they arent just add-ons but rather a central part of the device. I'm not sure when Sandisk is going to announce earnings but Samsung's earnings call is before the open on April 15th. Slacker