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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (41168)	3/31/2005 2:43:23 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206087

["Your theory, which I must admit sounds ridiculous at first blush, ties together a lot of odd facts when you really think about it."] ...not any more ridiculous than say a $105 Oil "Super Spike" report from Goldman Sachs (vbg) ? As I mentioned before: Oil isn't staying here at $55. $25-$35 on the collapse $85-100+++ potentially on an EWMD manipulation. So how do you trade it ? ...via a STRADDLE. Not a particularly complex options strategy. The bet is that Oil is not going to stay in a tight banded range here. Via options you define and limit both your capital exposure and your downside....but, yet retain VERY, VERY significant upside (or, downside) leverage. I was not "long" Energy Shares here into this rally. So I shorted the parabolic move here of late....but, I'm not greedy, or stupid. I bought LEAP CALLS with a portion of my "short sale" profits as I closed out my shorts. And on future breakout rallies I will buy LEAP PUT's and/or short common shares.....again; not getting greedy; taking what the market give me...usually my target would be 10-15% pullbacks...and again; upon taking short-sale profits... I will take a % of my profits and buy some LEAP CALLS - - thus maintaing a moving, "dynamic" Straddle with a Fundamental Short Bias that is not "static" - but, is dependant upon unfolding Geopolitcal & Economic Events and not so much on underlying supply:demand fundamentals...as for now; we have clearly disconnected from the fundamentals. The Longterm China story - is just that.....LONGTERM. It is a 50 year story...just as the US Industrialization was. The China Story is going to hold massive volatility as we are going to see both Cultural, Political and Economic Revolutions unfold. China isn't going to Super Power status in a straight-line and it isn't getting there without a massive attempt from the US to take out the last Communist Super Power Threat...and do NOT fail to underestimate GEOPOLITICAL catalysts here. We are at Cold War with China here and Now. Do not underestimate the domino-effect that a China Collapse will have on taking out our next most dangerous threat... North Korea....both of which supply and support Iran....who will either de-Nuke, or be taken out as well. 1-2-3 China-No Korea-Iran We're in Pakistan... India is rational. The world becomes a much safer and a much more productive place. All of this will take place in the next couple of years...bank on it. Politically George W. Bush is not his father's son... he is Ronald Reagan's. ...he did not stop at the road to Baghdad. George W. Bush's legacy is not going to just be bringing Democracy to the Middle East... it is going to be in placing the final foot to the throat of Communism and in eliminating the primary Nuclear Threats to the US and in supply rogue Terrorists with Nukes. China, North Korea and Iran....tic' toc` A Free, Democratic and Open Capitalism driven China will be a friend to America and an asset to the Modern Global Economy. An oppressive, non-free trade, Communist China - is not. Yesterday: we took out Hitler's Germany & Japan...and aided in rebuilding them into positive, peacefull contributors to the modern world. Today: we will take out Communist China, North Korea and Iran...and one day they will also all be, positive peacefull contributors to the modern world. History... it's a marvelous teacher. Learn from it, or be destined to be humbled by it.