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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (41219)	4/1/2005 8:25:20 AM
From: Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206321

The 5 year average is functionally meaningless in this brave new world of every kilowatt of incremental electricity demand having to be met by NG turbines -- and the virtual certainty that summer 2005 will be significantly hotter than summer 2004 and winter 2005-06 will be significantly colder than winter 2004-05 --- Frank

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (41219)	4/2/2005 6:10:56 AM
From: Ed Ajootian	Respond to of 206321

JQP, I hear you about high storage levels, that is why I was bearish. But we have now completed draw season with such high levels of storage yet the natty futures strip remains high. So the markets are answering your first question by saying that the current high levels of storage are not bearish enough to outweigh the other bullish factors out there. The total draws in this heating season that just ended were 1,911 BCF vs. Robry's total adjusted baseline #'s of 1,946 BCF. That's so close let's call it even. This is in spite of "the NG producers drilling like mad" over the past year. We should get a pool going on when the current amount of working gas in storage will dip below what it was in '04. I'm gonna guess Labor Day. Note that this is not as much of a stretch as it may appear. If storage fills between now and Labor Day are equal to the 5 yr. average we would be at 2,754 BCF and last year we were at 2,695 BCF on Labor Day. There is definitely a limit to storage, I believe it used to be around 3.5 TCF but they have either added or are about to add another quarter TCF or so of capacity. There is one analyst saying nutty things about NG, our old friend Andy Weissman. He occasionally posts (under the moniker "pulsewriter") on the CWEI board.