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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TRUE_TRUTH who wrote (41312)	4/2/2005 10:42:24 PM
From: EnergyElmer	Respond to of 206176

True_Truth "It seems that the oil and service sector analysts are morphing into Jack Grubmans and Henry Blodgetts and pointing toward the bleachers in centerfield" This is absolutely laughable. Setting price targets using below market multiples on cash flow and earnings is a far reach from using multiples on revenue (given there was no earnings or cash flow for many during the tech bubble) or multiples on per clicks or site visits.

To: TRUE_TRUTH who wrote (41312)	4/2/2005 11:08:30 PM
From: XoFruitCake	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206176

I don't think anyone know for sure when the cycle will end. The bull and bear argument in this board really is all about timing. Most of us understand the demand destruction concept and know China is the pivot that can move the oil market to either side. I don't think the GS piece move the physical market. All it does is moving the oil and oil service stock and get everyone talk about the oil market. The oil future look promising (they are all high 40 and 50 for the next few years). When you look at the oil inventory, you have to factor into the gas/diesel/HO inventory as well. The oil inventory is higher by 8% or so compare to 5 years average but the end product are all lower if you factor into the higher daily usage. It seems the gasoline story will continue to dominate the market for the next few months. There are at least a couple of big refinery that is offline in the next month (BP has one for turnaround that is over 200k bbl and there is one in Parague that is offline for a week for power shutdown). And then there is the potential strike in Nigeria on 4/11. When you factor into the changing spec in both US and Europe gasoline. There is going to be chaos in gasoline market and put more focus on the oil supply/demand situation for the next few month. By July, we will be looking at HO/HU situation and will see where we are... My only puppy is VLO so I am bias...

To: TRUE_TRUTH who wrote (41312)	4/4/2005 6:36:43 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206176

True Truth..... well said................... James Cramer discovered the Baker Hughes Rig Count tonight... < God help the Oilpatch Bulls <vbg> 50% of Cramers MAD MONEY calls are on Oil Stock's... and have been since his shows debut. - if savvy longtime investor/traders don't recognize what's happening here... RIP. James Cramer has become an Oilpatch Bull within 10-15% of the Top for 3 consecutive cycles. Tic Toc ! Oilpatch share prices are not determined by Oil and Gas Prices. - they're not determined by earnings, or cash flow per share. - not by PE,or PEG multiples. ...they're determined by Sentiment. Sentiment determines supply and demand. Supply and demand determine price movement. Sentiment has never been higher in the Oilpatch (note to Energy Elmer). Remember Merrill's research a few weeks ago. Alltime record bullish levels... with the highest levels in Energy Stocks. 75% of all Institutional Investors are Overweight Energy Stocks....75% is believed to be a modern alltime high. Institutional Investors are not looking for ultimate returns... they are looking to beat benchmarks... usually the S&P. Of note: ...they were also overweight in Oct 1997 and Sept 2000 when the OSX was 140+...soon followed by OSX 45 in Oct 1998 and OSX 58 in Sept 2001. Oilpatch Investors don't only have to worry about the cyclical fundamentals of the Oilpatch, or the economy... they need to worry about the cyclicality of Institutional Investors. Fickle is as Fickle does... Oil obviously affects the Economy - Oil Prices do not rise within either an Economic, or Geopolitical Vacumn. 6 Million BPD came off the demand side on the last Asian Slow Down. China is already showing social, political, banking system and economic structural cracks and the fundamental leverage that China has created in the Oil Market here; has created much more downside leverage to demand rollover than the last Asian Contagion. Tic' Toc`