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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (154976)	4/5/2005 10:26:53 PM
From: Elmer Phud	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Joe When AMD was selling 6M at 80mm^2, you sere seying this. I said that mayby one day we will get to test your theory. It was proven not to hold much water in H2 2004, when AMD sold 33+ percent more processors than 6M @ 8M, with average die size up some 50% from 80mm^2 to some 120mm^2. This isn't an either or world. The theory has not been disproven, it just leaves open the exact definition of "bad". I'd also like to see you back up your claim of average die up 50%. I don't think you're going to hit that on a weighted basis but I'm willing to look at the data. The only way for AMD to show they have good yields is to ship the expected volumes for multiple quarters to show they aren't just selling off inventory. Has that ever happened? Will it ever?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (154976)	4/5/2005 10:29:37 PM
From: dougSF30	Respond to of 275872

And capacity is continuing to go up over the next 3-6 months, as the 90nm conversion completes. CPG revs were $740M in Q4. At an ASP of $80, that's 9.25M parts. At an ASP of $85, that's 8.7M parts. Elmer is full of it, as usual.

To: Joe NYC who wrote (154976)	4/5/2005 11:57:33 PM
From: THE WATSONYOUTH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

BTW, I still say that AMD is demand limited, that Dresden can produce more than what we see today. FWIW, I estimate AMD can make 11 million/quarter with the mix and die sizes discussed here. More if yields are higher than I assumed. However, they will only produce them if they are all ready guaranteed to sell. I expect Intel to compete vigorously on price everywhere except the mobile area. They very much need to maintain that high profitability and will do so even if they allow some AMD market share gains there since the mobile market is growing so fast. I think Hector needs to get very aggressive in both the mobile and server area. THE WATSONYOUTH