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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (29128)	4/6/2005 5:24:16 AM
From: Robohogs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

How about a commodities bubble (of course would hurt real economy to some extent) or a renewed stock market bubble (second stage) or something else? I think the weak dollar recently was more of a function of low dollar interest rates and low dollar returns and to some extent Asian govt buying of dollars. This dollar buying may slow but I do not think the Asian countries can afford to allow collapse of US - might be better in long run but who focuses on long run when you have starving today. Also, Greenspan will precipitate some crisis somewhere and then reinflate as per usual. Where is the flashpoint this time? HY bonds/bank debt (GM factor)? Emerging markets (interesting that stocks are flattish given widening of debt yields)? Hedge world? JPM? DB? Citi? Other derivative houses? I must say I am baffled for one. Good luck! Jon PS You mentioned Citi Australia accounts with some yield. Where are the current savings rates? I ask as I am marrying a HK Chinese woman with Aussie citizenship and so may want to keep some money in Australia - she is very fond of it.

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (29128)	4/6/2005 11:28:52 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

I think a real estate crash limited to both coasts (and Chicago which always seems to bubble in a similar way due to available incomes) accompanied by a larger than normal recession is likely. Bingo. This is inevitable and the best case scenario with a continued pickup in natural resource based industries in flyover country with property prices appreciation in the midwest offsetting the huge declines in the overpriced coastal markets. My question is where does the excess lending go next? The end of the real estate boom around 1990 led to the birth of the stock market bubble. Yet stock prices seem particularly high to me (and corporate profits as a percent of GDP very high). Stock values in 1990 were exceptional. Hopefully a rebirth in the new economy along with advances in life sciences and biotech. Unless we go into a depression some of those beaten up tech stocks could be the growth engine the next cycle. For now Sarbanes-Oxley has really put a noose around the neck of the next generation innovators.