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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (41443)	4/6/2005 11:37:05 AM
From: XoFruitCake	Respond to of 206325

The gasoline problem probably has more to do with US and Europe spec change this year. With the spec change refineries has to upgrade their equipment to remove additional sulphur. Every refinery has to make their own decision to see if the investment is worthwhile or not. For US refinery, it is an easy decision. But for refineries in Asia, Africa and Eastern Europe who normally act as swing producer for us and Europe, it is not so easy a decision of whether it is worth it to upgrade or not. My speculation (since there is no data anywhere) is that some of these refineries may not upgrade to produce our spec. I think the proof is going to be in the weekly gasoline and HO data and crack spread. So far the both of them are very promising for the refineries. We will see blow out earning for sour crude refineries like VLO, PCO, TSO et the next 2 quarters, much more so than the producer.

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (41443)	4/6/2005 12:58:59 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206325

What's to wonder? We have a proliferation of gas guzzling trucks/SUV's and there hasn't been a major refinery built in the US in over 30 years. Add in the new sulpher requirements, which many foreign refineries can't meet, and it actually seems we are actually in surprisingly good shape.

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (41443)	4/6/2005 4:09:57 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 206325

re: ["You have to wonder why gasoline inventories continue to fall in the face of increasing refinery runs - up to 93.7%. What happened to our spring time build? Oh - CNBC reports gasoline supplies should be dropping this time of year."] Jimeny Cricket...Puh-leeeeeze. Gasoline Inventories coninue to fall ? FYI - Gasoline Inventories are now +10 Million Barrels higher today - than the same time last year. Crude Oil Supply Inventories are now + 9% higher, or + 20 Million Barrels higher than the same time last year...and now at the HIGHEST LEVELS since JULY 2002 ! - 5 year highs ! Once again; I ask the lemming crowd - how is that mathematically possible; if any of the following 3 Pillars of the Oil Bull arguement are true ? 1. We are in a new era/super spike - Demand Driven Cycle. 2. We have arrived here and now - into PEAK OIL production and supply rollover ala Matt Simmons rehash of Hubberts Peak for the 3rd consecutive Oil Cycle. 3. We have a Global Refining Crisis....a Crisis I say ! ...and all of that against a backdrop of the USA SIMULTANEOUSLY refilling it's SPR !?!?!? C'Mon... no one here can possibly be that stupid. There is nothing wrong with saying - hey ! We're in a speculative Bubble...and the collapse of the US Dollar has put the wind in our speculative sails...so let's ride the tiger & enjoy the hell out of it. C'mon...it's okay. ...you can do it. The Krispy Kreme, Taser & Sirius Satellite crowd came clean... the Oil bulls can too. As Nike says: ~ Just Do It ~ ...and I promise you...you'll feel much better once you get the PEAK OIL Monkey off your back and just utter the words: SSSSssssspppppppeeeeeecccccc-uuuuuuu-laaaaa-ttttttt-ive BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbuuuuuuuubbbbb-le ...there. That was easy; now wasn't it. I told you...you'd feel better. ;} REALITY CHECK: 8th consecutive week of US Crude Oil Inventory Builds and are now at the highest levels sincew July 2002 ! - 5 year highs... Crude Oil now + 20 Million Barrels higher than the same time last year (+ 9%) and Gasoline now + 10 Million Barrels higher than the same time last year. bloomberg.com Crude Oil Falls in N.Y. as U.S. Inventories Rose for 8th Week April 6 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a third day after the Energy Department said U.S. refiners boosted stockpiles for an eighth week and raised operating rates. U.S. oil inventories gained 2.4 million barrels in the week ended April 1 to 317.1 million barrels. Refineries operated at 93.7 percent of capacity, up 2.6 percentage point from the week before and the highest in four months. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan yesterday said rising inventories may ease the ``current price frenzy'' that sent oil to a record. ``Refinery utilization was up big time last week,'' said Justin Fohsz, a broker at Starsupply Petroleum Inc. in Englewood, New Jersey. *``If refiners continue to run at that rate, there will eventually be a big rise in gasoline stocks.'' * Crude oil for May delivery fell 19 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $55.85 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices surged to $58.28 on April 4, the highest since the contract was introduced in 1983. Futures are 60 percent higher than a year ago. New York futures fell as low as $55.30 a barrel after the weekly government inventory report came out at 10:30 a.m. in Washington. *** It looks like every time prices retreat the funds issue a buy order,'' said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy risk management at Fimat USA in New York. Fitzpatrick was referring to hedge funds and other speculators who may buy expecting that ``demand will outstrip supply by year's end.'' In London, the May Brent crude-oil futures contract fell 14 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $55.30 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange. Brent futures reached $57.65 a barrel on April 4, highest since trading began in 1988. Prices are 75 percent higher than a year ago. Refinery Profit *** Oil stockpiles are 9 percent higher than a year earlier and the highest since the week ended July 12, 2002, the government report said. An increase of 2.5 million was expected, according to the median forecast among 15 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. High profit margins are encouraging refiners to boost fuel output, analysts said. The profit from making a barrel of crude oil into gasoline and heating oil stood at $13.202 today, up 79 percent from a year ago. The margin is calculated on the difference in price between Nymex crude oil and fuel futures. ``They have the crude to process, the economic incentive to make as much gasoline as possible,'' said Kyle Cooper, an analyst with Citigroup Inc. in Houston. U.S. gasoline supplies fell 2.1 million barrels to 212.3 million, the report showed. That was in line with the median forecast among the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Gasoline for May delivery fell 2.6 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $1.662 a gallon in New York. Futures touched $1.7491 a gallon on April 4, the highest for a contract closest to expiration since the trading began in 1984. Gasoline is 55 percent higher than a year ago. Retail gasoline prices have gained as refiners pass on higher oil costs. Pump prices for regular grade gasoline, averaged nationwide, rose 3 cents to a record $2.228 a gallon yesterday, according to the AAA, formerly the American Automobile Association. To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net. To contact the editor responsible for this story: Robert Dieterich at rdieterich@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: April 6, 2005 14:49 EDT xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx PS: API shows an even larger Inventory Build + 4 Million Crude up 4M bbls in latest wk, gasoline up 0.3M- API Wednesday, April 6, 2005 4:07:49 PM afxpress.com NEW YORK (AFX) -- Crude oil supplies rose 4 million barrels in the latest week, according to data released by the American Petroleum Institute.

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (41443)	4/7/2005 8:16:48 AM
From: Dennis Roth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206325

Michael The Raymond James weekly DOE Petroleum Inventory Update usually contains charts that help put the inventory numbers into perspective. raymondjamesecm.com Only heating oil inventories are unusually low, and heating season is over. As you pointed out motor gasoline demand is up only 1.9 percent over last year, and I think we are going to see that consumer demand this summer will prove to be more elastic and sensitive to price than the cassandras would have yopu believe. BTW, they've posted a new Energy Monthly for April. For some reason they never posted one for March.