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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rsie who wrote (3052)	4/7/2005 4:58:18 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

Rich re <<<I think that we are going to see 60's and 70's play out again, where gold will rise with inflation, inflation will rise its ugly head again ,and home mortgages will go only up, up , and up..>>> Personally I don't see how inflation could possibly get out of hand at this time given the current Fed. If anything some of these guys seem trigger happy to raise rates for the wrong reasons. I completely agree with Bob that high energy price are contractionary on balance for the overall economy as it reduces other spending. The main danger I see is the Fed getting out of hand and killing off the economy as they overplay their tightening hand particularly with a housing market so vulnerable to interest rates at this time. If I had to make a prediction it would be that the market could have a smart rally continue for awhile at which point the Fed throws us into another slowdown marking the end of the cyclical bull. Could happen later this year or next but regardless the Fed if anything will be over-vigilent. I just don't see any roaring inflation anywhere in that scenario. Now gold will be more affected by dollar movements so I don't have a guess for that. Marc