Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Webster Groves who wrote (41538)	4/7/2005 6:55:24 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206326

webster["The point is to follow the market and not the hypsters and doomsters who always have the answer for you"] Webster if you actually walked your talk and followed your own advice in the Oilpatch and followed the market - you'd be a whiplash victim that has also been sitting in dead money for now 8 years. OSX closed at 141 today... it was 140+ in October 1997. XNG closed at 331 today....it was 370+ in March 1998. In between you got whiplashed if you followed the market, or investor sentiment on these threads. You ONLY survived... if you were a TRADER and stayed out in front of Mr. Market - recognizing above all else; that this is, was and will always be - a CYCLICAL Sector. OSX 140 in Oct 1998 - down to OSX 45 in Oct 1998. Osx 143 in Sept 2000 - down to OSX 96 in Nov 2000. OSX 138 in March 2001 - down to OSX 58 in Sept 2001. OSX 112 in May 2002 - down to OSX 80 in Feb 2003. Now back to OSX 140....7 whiplash years later in April 2005. Begining to get the concept of cyclicals yet ? ...now Webster; tell me one more time with a straight face about following Mr. Market ? You would have followed the market up the mountain and off the cliff about 4 times over that timeframe....6 times if you played some Nat Gas cycles. Going back to Oct 1997 the OSX made it's initial top over 140 then double topped in the spring of 1998 & collapsed down to OSX 45 by Oct 1998. I learned many lessons from that cycle... mainly; never make the same mistake twice. Secondly - NEVER be a follower of Mr. Market, or the herd in cyclicals; in fact always be buying when everyone else is selling... and always be selling when everyone else is buying ! Another absolutely infallible lesson learned; is that these Yahoo & SI Oilpatch threads are the ultimate contrarian indicators... in fact they've been absolutely flawless contrarian Oilpatch indicators since 1997....flawless ! That concept was never proven more true than back in the spring of 2001 when the OSX topped around 136 in May of 2001....only to once again collapse back down to OSX 80 during June - a 56 point implosion in around 4 weeks. That was perhaps the most raucous battle between Bulls & Bears in the history of SI. It took place here on SI on the old Strictly Drilling thread & on Yahoo on the RIG board with my old nemesis Mr. Supplyside_econ. I made what either was a very lucky, or very prescient call on an OSX top....what I didn't do - was given any money back by following Mr. Market. It was a call based on sentiment getting way, way too bullish & one of selling into strength on the final upside rally. May 2001 was the last time I've been long to any degree in Oilpatch stocks. Imo; there has simply been better risk to reward plays both in and out of the market. Oilpatch Bulls lost more money & lost it faster during that Infamous JUNE SWOON in 2001 than perhaps any other time since the advent of these discussion boards on the internet. The sell off was hard & fast. Bulls bought dip, after dip, after dip, after dip. It was ugly. The year before in Dec 2000 - we had the same battle over Natural Gas. I started shorting the last trading day of December...and the XNG never ticked higher... all the way down from XNG 260 in Dec 2000 to it's ultimate bottom in July 2002 at XNG 120. You would have thought than anyone who was shorting Nat Gas at that time was a child molester...after all California was going thru Rolling Black Outs... we were in a NEW PARADIGM... a Natural Gas & Energy Crisis that was - GOING TO THE MOON - ALICE ~ Remember that "New Paradigm, New Era - This Time it's Different" Natural Gas Euphoria Environment ? Blackouts Hit California; Governor Signs Emergency Order to Buy Power! ecoworld.org FWIW there are about 20+ posters here on this thread today making the same arguement now ... as they did then. - whodathunkit ? - that collapse wasn't as brutual... more of a series of headfake rallies followed by bigger pullbacks. And what did we ultimately learn ? .. after all the rolling blackouts; we found out about all of the trading shenanigans from Enron fixing the California Market etc. They "gamed" the Nat Gas Market then... and they're "gaming" the Crude Oil market here people. Wake Up. Bottomline... the XNG Nat Gas E&P's were over halved from the Euphoric environment that existed during the California Blackouts. Sound familiar ? Elmer... don't take this the wrong way; but the absolute most imbecilic thing any Oilpatch Investor could ever do.. is follow Mr. Market, or the Herd here on SI. You'd better be way out front of Mr.Market & the Herd... or, Mr. Cyclical will hand you your head. And he always does it into strong commodity prices, escalating earnings, into analysts ramping those earnings estimates and most of all; directly into the most bullish of bullish investor sentiment ! - you'll recognize the TOP as when all of the above exist and especially when Mr. Market disconnects from the "Real World" fundamentals such as those Mr. Lee Raymond of XOM and all the other Big Oil CEO's have been telling us about... The PermaBulls here have been claiming the arrival of yet another "New Energy Paradigm" , have recycled Matt Simmons PEAK OIL call for the now 4th Oilpatch Cycle and don't have a clue as to how much of the Bull Market in Crude Oil is actually resulting from a Bear Market in US Dollar Currency against the Euro; they don't see the real risk unfolding in the China play and don't see the disconnect from the reality of the supply:demand fundamentals as Inventorys build to near 5 year highs...all the while the USA is re-filling it's SPR ! ...two words: Tic' Toc`