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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (41547)	4/7/2005 7:45:29 PM
From: Webster Groves	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206326

With all due respect Mr. Black, do I look like I am made of straw ? You construct your straw man and then knock him down. I said I followed the market. To dummies (you decide if this applies to you) the market goes up and the market goes down. A trader plays these moves as best he or she can. The idea is to make a profit and not necessarily to "be right". So what if the OSX is cyclic ? That's not the point. The point is to ride the wave, either up or down I sense a bit of seller's remorse on your part. You missed out and now you want to prove you're right. Shout all you want, all I can lose is 8.7% more (lost 1.3% today from ATH yesterday). A little trading discipline and a stomach for the game is all you need to play. This board is not a hand holding site, If you want hand holding, ask Michael Jackson. Perhaps it's an audience you crave ? Couldn't get past the door at Second City so you show up here again. I don't think your admonitions are completely worthless, though. Some younger traders have only seen the upside to energy. Perhaps you can give them some religion. But I sense an emptiness to your words. A man with such conviction, such fire and brimstone, should be short. You seem to have a lot of time and energy for a non-player. When the time comes I'll play the dark side too, but not with as much enthusiasm, and with the QQQQs and not energy wg P.S. I remember your love of baseball. Now with all the steroid scandals, do you feel kids these days have any heros ?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (41547)	4/7/2005 10:29:22 PM
From: ChanceIs	Respond to of 206326

Slider - please consider the storage level to daily demand ratio issue before pointing at the absolute storage levels. I certainly got caught long in the famous OSX June '01 implosion. Certainly there was a lot of hype - Professor Economides and the whole gang from the University of Houston were pointing at $40 NG. However there were fundamentals which now appear very obvious. We were long past due a recession, which we got and which cut NG demand. We had a cool summer. We had about six weeks in a row of 100+ NG builds in late spring. The government put a price cap on electricity. If there is one thing I have learned, its when the government pulls out market controls, the market tanks. It didn't matter that the price caps were on electricity. There was a knock-on effect on natural gas. Remember in June of '03 when Greenspan first starting publicly talking about a NG shortage, then the press started talking about NG price caps??? Poof. Down we went. Things are different this time: 1) Canadian exports and production are down. 2) NG is showing sustained $7.50 vice probably an average $4.50 for '00-'01. 3) Crude has spiked to $58 vice a spike to $37 in '00. 4) We are still on the upside of manufacturing and economic growth. I question how long this will last. The '01 recession really only lasted two quarters. As I recall we were pulling up in Q4 '01. GDP growth was something crazy like 6% in Q1 '02. 5) We have a lot more houses heated with NG. 6) The OSX ran up to current levels rather sharply, whereas this time it has made a more gradual ascent. 7) The Senate is about to make more work/sites available for drilling. These supplies might not come on line tomorrow, but they might quickly start a boomlet in the exploratory side of the OSX vice production. 8) Say what you will about President Bush, but he will NOT implement price caps. Look at how decisively he resisted spilling the SPR this last election cycle. I am not suggesting that we are not in a bubble, or that it won't end in wailing and gnashing of teeth. The fundamentals are more supportive right now than at the corresponding time in '01. They could change. The NG build today was 10 BCF vice the five year average of 2BCF for this week. I will be watching that very carefully. I have to point out a contradiction in your argument. You say don't follow the market. But you also say that the OSX is cyclical because it has always been cyclical. Isn't this following the market??? To be sure, I will be looking for a crack in the fundamentals, and I will be selling not so much because I think the fundamentals will tank the businesses, but because I think that there are a lot of fools with weak hands who will sell because the OSX has always sold off when the fundamentals weaken. I hate to be part of that crowd, but I have learned hard lessons. I held after 9/11. It was a human tragedy, but of little economic consequence. Furthermore, I considered selling unpatriotic. I paid a heavy price. As investors we have to factor in the behavior of fools. Its too bad.