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Non-Tech : The Woodshed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SwampDogg who wrote (25436)	4/10/2005 1:38:23 PM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 60899

fuddle, I looked at the XOI; and it is a good illustration of my thinking. It has not broken any fan lines, off the bottom. It is still climbing and in my opinion has not completed a primary 1 up. When it does break a fan line I think that will confirm it is in a long long consolidation. By the time it does break however, many late comer bulls will have been bloodied. I personally think the XOI first primary top occurs this summer, or in early '06. I use fan lines most often these days, and semi log charts rarely. I think the concept of fan lines has more validity with EW application than does semi log. In the engineering world we use semi log more or less to fit any ole thing that comes along. Sometimes there is a basis with physics, but certainly not always. I guess I have trouble seeing and feeling the basis of semi-log plotting with stocks, as well. Since I play with EW I feel more comfortable with the fan line approach, and think there is more basis. I think we are on the same wavelenght here, actually. Just to throw something else in, I've noticed that Carl Swenlin from Dpoint rarely if ever uses semi-log, but I have never seen him comment as to why. He always seems to use linear plotting, trend lines and fan lines. ttrader.com

To: SwampDogg who wrote (25436)	4/10/2005 2:03:32 PM
From: steve from ihub	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60899

i totally disagree with that. few think we are going to drop that low on the xau. the majority are heavily invested now and think we will turn up. what is the basis for your thinking that the gold bugs are on the sideline? this thread has some very knowledgeable folks, but i would be willing to bet that if you did a survey that 80% or more are in now and have been in for some time. i am in now but only for a bounce and have made that clear when i started stepping into the trade. the window for the bounce is closing and i am not that comfortable holding for much longer. since the 15 and 60 min charts have reset i am pulling for a bounce mon/tues which i will sell into and take my meager profits. should we break down early in the week i will be faced with a tough decision. i currently need .46% rise in the djgsp index for breakeven. if we get a decent two day bounce i can make a percent or so which frankly isnt that good for all the effort but would sure be better than riding it down from here.