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Gold/Mining/Energy : PEAK OIL - The New Y2K or The Beginning of the Real End? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug R who wrote (324)	4/14/2005 1:58:07 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1183

I agree that 15 years is not out of line. This may be OK or too long depending when we start, what % decline of oil is there in the meantime and how effective are stopgap solutions (gas, coal, shale, tarsands, whatever). I am not forgetting that stopgap solutions need investments themselves. I think it is quite difficult to model the situation beforehand. In the best case we have national (and international) Manhattan project, discover affordable fusion soon and use the resources to get to the energy-sufficiency-based-on-fusion asap (fission self-sufficiency may be less likely, but still possible - and we don't need to discover anything). In the worst case, the doomsday scenarios happen that I don't need to repeat here. There are a lot of middle ground cases that are most likely IMHO. But I would not dare to predict what exactly they are. Jurgis not Predictor

To: Doug R who wrote (324)	4/15/2005 6:09:22 AM
From: kryptonic6	Respond to of 1183

"It will take a lot of oil to build such an infrastructure." Oil that we won't have. The peak event is THE POINT OF NO RETURN for industrial society. After that, there is no more surplus energy to fuel development of new infrastructure. "Petroleum geologists have known for 50 years that global oil production would "peak" and begin its inevitable decline within a decade of the year 2000. Moreover, no renewable energy systems have the potential to generate more than a fraction of the power now being generated by fossil fuels." --Jay Hanson, DieOff.org Jesse