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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Taikun who wrote (30708)	4/15/2005 3:32:17 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I certainly don't see how lift-off is achieved in gold without winning over the masses. what have the masses to do with it?

To: Taikun who wrote (30708)	4/15/2005 3:33:55 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

high yeilds? look at today's action...bonds are already seeing a flight to safety...

To: Taikun who wrote (30708)	4/15/2005 3:47:09 PM
From: seventh_son	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Yes, actually if the economy starts to slow again due to a slow-down in the real estate bubble, we may find ourselves back where we were in 2001 in terms of the fed trying to reflate the system again (that's if they can pull off the same trick this time). If I remember correctly, gold did very well in that environment. If the US dollar continues to fall, we may have stagflation to boot, and bonds are the worst place to be in that environment.

To: Taikun who wrote (30708)	4/15/2005 4:11:15 PM
From: Proud Deplorable	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

"liquidity is leaving the system, and investors with excess liquidity will be well-compensated (eg bond yield rising) " are you serious? How much more can I get from 6 months ago? If people want to take huge losses in order to gain a percentage point in yield it makes no sense. I'm talking about the precious metals market. A crash in the markets along with the USD which is positively going to go down the drain if the Chinese revalue should be more than enough to send J6P looking for gold. BUT they may be too drugged to think straight. I say this because when things get tough most people run to pharmaceuticals (or street drugs) and this was the best performing sector today

To: Taikun who wrote (30708)	4/16/2005 10:23:42 AM
From: studdog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Taikun, Do you think revaluing the chinese currency could be the catalyst the POG needs? I think it might: posted on Mish's thread <If China lets their currency float, isn't inflation in the US and a sharp decline in the dollar the inevitable result? The deflationary power of cheap Chinese goods is a large part of what has kept the lid on inflation so far. Won't that end if the yuan floats? Also if the yuan appreciates, then gold, oil and all the other commodities priced in dollars will be cheaper for the Chinese, presumably supporting or increasing demand. Furthermore I would expect them to unload as many dollars as possible buying strategic resources, particular oil and oil rights (a new kind of war for resources, they will just buy it all with their warchest of clownbucks).So, it seems to me that floating the yuan will be very beneficial to commodity prices in dollar terms, further fueling inflation. If the yuan floats and the dollar drops our trade deficit will narrow but I think not because of increased export but more due to decreased importation of previously cheap goods. Since demand for chinese goods will slow, no more need for "lender financing" by Asian central banks, so interest rates will rise probably fast enough to choke our own growth but not fast enough to stop inflation or support the dollar. Smells like stagflation not deflation. How is this good? And congress is demanding this? In my feeble analysis, then, it seems that a floating yuan will be very good for gold,oil and commodities. Yes, no, or maybe?> Karl