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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (22870)	4/19/2005 2:14:29 PM
From: BWAC	Respond to of 95617

"What stimulus is being put in place now to accomplish any rebound?" 1.) Underinvestment in capital equipment. 2.) Capital Equipment purchases which are exceeded by current period Depreciation Expense. Leading to EVEN MORE excess cash flows and cash hoards. 3.) Chip price competition. You'll go out of business if you don't invest in the technology which makes the chips faster, smaller, and far cheaper as your comeptitor did. There are 3 stimuli.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (22870)	4/19/2005 3:18:32 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95617

For most companies in the SCE sector, their revenues peaked back in the 3rd qtr of 2004(CY). Yet the peak wasn't nearly as strong as previous upturns. The industry has been very quick to react to the S/D dynamics. Some of the small and micro caps have seen orders drop during the 1st half of 2005 by 30%, indicating a possible overreaction and a reluctance to over build--as in the past. So far it appears we should be forecasting for a flat, at best, 2nd Q of 2005 vs the 1Q. The combination of a quick reduction in ordering and a very conservative short term outlook continues to follow my expected scenario of a tough 2005. I still believe the rebound will start at the end of this CY or at the beginning of 2006. Keep in mind I believe the ordering 'rebound will start' late in the year. This would imply that the peak would be 4 to 6 quarters later, either the end of 2006 or the middle of 2007. This could easily be pushed out by a quarter or 2. To directly answer your question, no, the rebound does not have to happen in 2006 but currently most indicators that I have looked at point to the rebound starting in 2 to 4 quarters. Can this be pushed out? Sure. However, most estimates for individual companies show expectations of 10% plus revenue growth for 2006 vs 2005 but much of this is back end loaded for the 2nd half of 2006.