Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rz who wrote (62544)	4/22/2005 10:42:54 PM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 74559

"On the bright side: in 1980 at the peak of prior commodity boom the AUD/USD exchange rate was 1.15" But I think there was more inflation in Aus in the following years than in the US.

To: rz who wrote (62544)	4/23/2005 2:21:32 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

I sold last week AUD and jumped into CAD. All those commodities and a deficit = too much spending by the government.

To: rz who wrote (62544)	4/23/2005 6:54:25 AM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Australia has a much bigger real estate bubble than the US -- which is now bursting. So, even though its mortgage industry is not as crazy, the wealth effect still spills over into excessive consumption, mostly of imports, hence their trade deficit. However, their government runs a budget surplus, and their social security system funds are already in a "lock-box". Also, part of their trade deficit is actual FDI pouring in to finance expansion of mines, etc. So, I still think the AUD is not overvalued vs the USD, and I put my money where by mouth is by recently tripling my FAX position, when FAX started selling at nearly 10% discount to its net asset value.