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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moominoid who wrote (62813)	4/27/2005 1:16:57 AM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Thanks for the insight Moo, I am like you, having been away from trading for several years now and finding myself with lots of free time since IBM sent my job to India - hehe. Now have time to do the hobby again. All the traders I am listening to on the talk shows - gary kaultbaum - phil grandie - mark seleznov - pretty much think we are going down within a month or so if not sooner - based on busting down through 200 or 50 day moving averages and making new lows - not new highs - the banking index will have to fall according to phil but the crooks will rally the banking index for the next few weeks before the fuel runs out. I was short goog, long xom, stopped out of both in the past 2 weeks, but looking to short a few companies for a few months ride down - based on what I hear from these professional traders with bear attitudes and some of the major bear economists and analysts like stephen roach and brad delong. Phil and a few others said last week don't chase the rally, too volatile right now - let the market establish a clear trend and then make the bucks riding the wave. Per 1994, one of the bear radio guys said the same thing - this market reminded him of 1994. As for volatility, I am not studied enough to predict what happens when it increases - but my general guess is that people's psychology still can't accept things are bad and getting worse in our economy and that is why they are not unloading stocks. Gary Kaultbaum said with all these cramers pumping stocks and analysts saying BUY BUY BUY - sheeple are being sheepherded while the crooks dump thier shares on the dummies. I may short AAPL, but I am going to wait until this week is out, all the earnings over - tiger OS X is out - and a more clear trend is established. I am looking at holders of unsecured debt and home related stocks to short over the next 1-6 months if the trend breaks down. I keep hearing the professional radio traders saying the market needs to fall to 9700 or lower before you establish a trend. I still have much to learn, but I want to play to win and am not in this to gamble senselessly - I am in this to learn science and strategy to make money. I am playing with only about 25K US clown bucks right now - just to meet scottrades level 2 requirement, have my big money in vangaurd short term bond funds and international value funds. You say we are nearing a bottom and on the way back up - phil grandie - 40 years trading - and gary kaultbaum - former nasdaq market maker both say they can't predict a bottom and feel we are going down from their technical analysis - whoever is right within the next 2 months will gain my ear for me to learn from - hehe.