Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moominoid who wrote (63071)	4/30/2005 1:35:05 PM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hehe Great Moo - this is helping me learn. Ok as for the NDX - gary kaultbaum (a former nasdaq market maker - he was on fox's bulls and bears a weekend back and very bearish) and a few other of the radio traders I listen too say we still have not hit the yearly bottom - but it is POSSIBLE we will have a short covering rally/bounce for the next few weeks because of divergance - but we are still headed down and this summer will see new lows. Gary said the NDX is 14% MSFT and that is a pig stock with no movement and is a real problem for the NDX. From a fundamental level I will not buy a new dell or new MSFT OS this year - I did last year, niether will my redneck buddies with 8 citi credit cards they are bankrupting on - but they bought dell and msft products last year too - so I don't see some of the big boys on the NDX making much money this year. Gary also said the NDX was the most volatile of the indexes and goes down in bears and up in bulls much more than the S&P and for this reason advises his listeners not to take a long position in the NDX because even if there is a short term rally - when the bear comes back this summer the gap down could be very fast and very big and wipe out any weekly gains. I have read the link you sent - first off I am a CS person and I am having trouble absorbing the theories presented there as any kind of science that can be applied to make me and you money - when they start talking about stocks dont go down in years that end with 5 and that kind of stuff they start losing me and my respect - that is just such a crazy thing to say to my mind - past peformance really doesn't mean much in the regard of we don't go down in years ending in 5 to me. But I am keeping an open mind because I really want to give everything a chance. A quote from your link: Cycles have shown that for the years ending in 5 the first quarter often stretching into the second quarter tend to be weak. There were exceptions to that of course the most notable being 1975 and 1995 where weakness in the market did not develop until the fall. In both those instances, however, they were coming out of troughs that were seen in both 1974 and 1994 Now Gary said this market reminded him of 94 - if so and we use the past to predict the future - then in 06 in the fall we will have a rally coming out of the 05 trough if I read it correctly and this is indeed like 94. With a stock market that is showing high bullish sentiment of around 60% or higher and a VIX volatility indicator at record lows certainly the odds highly favour that a correction is coming. Gary said that when you have a bear followed by high VIX volatility - that may be a short term correction and time to go long - from what I heard of his friday radio show - I thought he was implying VIX volatility was high and this gave support that there may be a few weeks rally. But your link is saying it is low - perhaps I am confused again.

To: Moominoid who wrote (63071)	4/30/2005 2:45:56 PM
From: shades	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

dynamic.nasdaq.com Kaultbaum was a little off it seems - MSFT is only 7.8% - shame on him for giving out bad info - he should know better no? Still looking at the components - I don't buy things from most of those companies or give most of them money that I can tell - last year I did buy things like cellphones and computers and software from a lot of those companies - I won't do that this year - if they are depending on me and my redneck buddies with 8 citi credit cards to make money - most of the companies on that index are FUGGGGD if you ask me! I went to best buy yesterday, lots of inventory - this goes with the GDP stuff announced the other day about inventory levels being very high no? I checked out the mac mini - it was neat, I liked it, if someone gave me one I would play with it, but my Mac G3 and My P4 Dell do all I need right now - I bought a lot of stuff from best buy last year, I don't think they are going to do so hot from what I saw yesterday at their store. The only things I am even THINKING about buying this year is maybe a few more LCD monitors if they get really cheap so I can have 12 trade windows instead of only the 4 I have now. XP natively supports 12 screens if I remember correctly and the ATI radeon 7000 cards at circuit city are like only 40 bucks now - cheap. realtimesoft.com