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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (14741)	5/3/2005 10:45:10 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 25522

OT Hopefully this is good for no more than a laugh, considering the source: Message 21288184 Perhaps this is similar to the QCOM $1000 call in 2000, a sign that things are topping out in oil.

To: Gottfried who wrote (14741)	5/3/2005 11:59:48 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

European semiconductor sales fell in March, says SIA Peter Clarke EE Times (05/03/2005 11:28 AM EDT) LONDON — Although March was dubbed a growth month by the Semiconductor Industry Association, European sales of semiconductors fell compared with March 2004 while sales across the Americas region were flat compared with a year ago, the industry organization's statistics have revealed. The worldwide sales growth — both actual and on a three-month average basis — hid the disparity between Asian year-on-year 'actual' sales growth of 16.2 percent and western hemisphere flatness. Japan's sales of semiconductors were up 3.5 percent compared with a year before. Worldwide the world semiconductor sales in March 2005 were $20.63 billion, 7.2 percent ahead of the same month in 2004, the SIA's statistics show. This is a smaller year-on-year growth than was achieved in the three-month average announced by the SIA on Monday (May 2). The three-month average for March was $18.43 billion, up 13.2 percent over the equivalent sales in 2004. The same percentage increase as the actual sales for the first three-months of 2005 which stands at $55.30 billion, compared with $48.86 billion of semiconductors sold in the first three months of 2004. However, actual Asian semiconductor sales in March were $8.98 billion or about 43.5 percent of the total. Japan sales were $4.1 billion. European sales were $3.79 billion while the Americas region sales were $3.77 billion. The SIA and other regional industry groups publicize sales statistics gathered by World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) as the three-month moving averages of monthly sales activity, rather than the actual numbers. The SIA calculates averages to smooth out variations due to companies' sales reporting calendars, which often make March, June, September and December five-week months thereby inflating those month's numbers.

To: Gottfried who wrote (14741)	5/3/2005 2:26:11 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Fed Boosts Key Rate a Quarter-Point Tuesday May 3, 2:22 pm ET By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer Federal Reserve Boosts Key Interest Rate a Quarter-Point; Eighth Increase Since Last June WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve, caught between a sudden economic slowdown and heightened worries about inflation, decided to nudge a key interest rate up by another quarter-point on Tuesday. The move, which had been widely expected by financial markets, pushed the federal funds rate up to 3 percent. It was the eighth increase in the interest that banks charge each other on overnight loans since the central bank began its credit tightening campaign last June. The Fed also retained a promise it has been making for the past year to move rates up "at a pace that is likely to be measured," a phrase that markets have interepreted as signaling continued small quarter-point rate increases. The decision by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and his colleagues came as the central bank is being buffeted by strong economic crosscurrents -- rising inflation pressures on one hand and a sudden slowing in economic growth on the other. Noting the recent slowdown, the Fed in its statement said, "Recent data suggest that the solid pace of spending growth has slowed somewhat, partly in response to the earlier increases in energy prices." The Fed also noted rising prices, saying "Pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months and pricing power is more evident." It was widely expected that faced with those conflicting forces, the Fed would stay the course, raising interest rates marginally in an effort to keep inflation pressures from this year's spurt in oil prices from spilling into other sectors of the economy. When the Fed started boosting rates 10 months ago, the funds rate stood at 1 percent, the lowest level in 46 years. The increase in the funds rate was expected to trigger a corresponding quarter-point increase in banks' prime lending rate, the benchmark for millions of business and consumer loans. The prime rate now stands at 5.75 percent.

To: Gottfried who wrote (14741)	5/7/2005 3:17:48 PM
From: C_Johnson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

Posting just a bit today. Apparently one of my posts to Mr. Furman did not make it on the board - must be a limit on posts or something.... Gottfried, I appreciate the explanation for your analyst upgrade/downgrade chart. Someone said that I was posting to defend the analysts. Maybe it sounded like that but that was not my intent. I've said, time and time again, there are good analysts and there are bad. Most have access to a tremendous amount of information - more than you can find in the public domain (web). That does not mean they are good at interpeting the data. Again, some are good, some are bad. I don't think I've disagreed with the fact that "semiconductor" sales, as measured by the SIA, are still hovering near all time highs and I don't think I have tried to use the trends in capital equipment bookings to disprove that fact. Please correct me if that is the case. I believe what I have said is that the "growth rate" of semiconductor sales has been slowing and that has implications for the food chain. This trend has been going on for a number of years. I've been posting some thoughts on the first page of my site and in some of the blogs about the change in the capital spending ratio for a while. A few of these posts are germane to the discussion here. They are right at this link, for all to view: infras.com On a related note, I have, once again, read some posts about the confusion between semiconductor sales and IC sales. I believe we discussed this a while back. If I recall correctly it was in regards to a forecast from IC Insights. There is a difference between semiconductor sales and IC sales. IC sales are sales of Monolithic Integrated Circuits. That's the number I track. It is the lower number and I find it much more relevant in measuring capital spending ratios for advanced technology (300mm, sub-130nm, etc, etc). Why the difference? To quote my past explanation, IC Insights, and for that matter IC Knowledge and others, track the "Numbers that exclude diodes, small signal transistors, power transistors, rectifiers, thyristors, sensors, optoelectronics and a number of different discretes." Thanks again for the explanation. Carl