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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shades who wrote (63458)	5/5/2005 8:54:32 AM
From: Slagle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Shades, Re: "sell in May and go away". Kaultbaum has now gone bullish, cautiously so...covered al his shorts and called yesterday a classic IBD "follow through day" and that now is time to go long, but carefully. What do you think? Phil says buy BAC @ 45.91...BAC closed yesterday at 45.98 though the volume wasn't that hot. I like the looks of the regional banks better, ASO, STI. Big pharma and insurance and brokers looking good but not much else. Are you buyin'. Slagle

To: shades who wrote (63458)	5/5/2005 11:43:28 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Kaultbaum on his show a few days ago said if you just went long august to january and sat out the markets summer since 1960 you would have 10K grown to 500K. If you just went long may through the summer your 10K would have lost 500 dollars by today. That is a pretty strong case for sell in may and go away no? In the long run that is correct... but as everyone knows that now, shouldn't the effect go away? That is what the efficient markets theory would say. I've hinted before to people that my proprietary method involves some simple time series econometrics. But not something 99%+ of econometricians will think of doing unless they stumble on it by accident. And it is calculated in a spreadsheet. But everyday I need to add the data by hand to the spreadsheet. So I don't do many stocks or indices. Maybe that could be automated more using some standard software, but the method is so different to all other TA, I doubt it. The things is... not all the signals it gives are really significant bottoms or tops. So all the other TA I use is in order to find which are and which are not significant signals. An example of invalid TA are people who say that when stochs get below a certain level that is bearish and vice versa. Almost the opposite is probably true :) But it is the cross-overs and the direction and rate of change which is important (and how it relates to E-Wave - almost no e-wavers use it, hence all their conflicting forecasts, some use MACD to find waves).