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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 8bits who wrote (43558)	5/5/2005 6:33:42 PM
From: tom pope	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206338

It was also weird since he posted just when the market decided the homebuilders would benefit from the GM/F downgrades if that led the FED to stop tightening. I know because I was short LEN and had to cover.

To: 8bits who wrote (43558)	5/5/2005 10:22:30 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Respond to of 206338

Runs, Actually, I know nothing about energy. I used to make the effort, back in the glory days of 99 and 00, but I find it makes no difference. KWK is a good campaign stock, but I just made 100% on TKLC in April and I don't have a clue what they do, not even what their name is. Message 21291702 You know, all the punters who steeped themselves in tech in the 90s, knew all about CSCO's business (the plumber of the internet!), book to bill ratios for INTC and AMD, subscribed to George Gilder's newsletter, drank the bandwidth Koolaid, knew all about optics and photonics--those guys? That didn't save them from a scalding once the stocks started falling. To be honest, I think the same thing is true here. You can read all GS BS reports (okay, Merrill, RG, etc.), you can think about Chinese explosions and implosions, read up on the newest specs for sour crude refineries, and know all there is to know about tar sands, AND it won't make you a dime if you go long in a downtrending stock. I think this post by my buddy is one of the best approaches to trying to take some of the mystery out of looking at charts and creating a trading plan: Message 21296524 To paraphrase the site and make it very concise: you have to know your timeframe and you have to be able to identify a trend. After that, it's just a question of picking your spots and managing your risk. Kb

To: 8bits who wrote (43558)	5/15/2005 5:15:23 AM
From: 8bits	Respond to of 206338

Oil contracts in Contango in US and Europe but Backwardation in Asia: Released on May 11, 2005 (Next Release on May 18, 2005) This Week In Petroleum Yin-Yang The ancient Chinese philosophical symbol yin-yang represents the understanding of the workings of the universe. This image may be illustrative as we think about the cycling of global crude oil inventories from region to region. So far this year, oil demand growth has remained strong globally, with China and the United States vying for petroleum supplies. China’s demand growth has accelerated over the past two years, stretching OPEC production to near capacity levels, given that non-OPEC sources are pumping at capacity, if not nearing their peak. With low spare capacity, the global supply chain is struggling to meet all needs evenly, resulting in a cycling of tightness from region to region, as price differentials attract imports into one area and out of another. As prices fall in the well-supplied area and rise in the less well-supplied area, the pattern is reversed and imports flow in another direction. Crude oil inventories in the United States are at their highest levels since March 2002, with prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) remaining in contango (the condition where longer term futures contracts carry a higher price than shorter term contracts). This condition encourages inventory builds if the contango exceeds the costs of carrying the commodity for future delivery. So much stock building has taken place in the United States in recent weeks, that storage has reportedly tightened, contributing to a softening in U.S. crude prices, a deepening in the contango pattern, and a shift in import patterns. At the same time, Brent, the benchmark crude oil for Europe, is also in contango and selling at higher prices relative to WTI than usually exists. With high U.S. stocks and additional freight costs, suppliers have little incentive to ship incremental crude oil across the Atlantic. As a result, European crude oil has also piled up, limiting operational storage. While WTI and Brent are in contango, Malaysian Tapis remains in backwardation (the condition where prompt prices for a commodity are higher than the price for future delivery). This signals that the market is experiencing currently tight conditions and scrambling for prompt supplies, which is the case with thirsty Asia. Tapis is an Asia-Pacific benchmark, and in April it was selling at about a $6 premium to Brent. With limited storage capacity, Asia-Pacific refiners were willing to use tankers in transit as extra storage during the long passage to bring in much needed imports.