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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brendan W who wrote (21284)	5/10/2005 8:22:16 AM
From: Suma	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78498

What is the symbol for Corillion Software.. I cannot seem to find it in symbol check.TIA

To: Brendan W who wrote (21284)	5/12/2005 11:58:04 PM
From: gcrispin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78498

Since you mentioned QC Holdings, you might want to take a look at DLLR. It is a little different company from the others in the sector. First of all, on 38% of their business is in the US. 57% originates from Canada and the UK. Only four stores are located in Texas. They have a dominant share of the business in the UK and Canada. In the UK they are six to seven times larger than their nearest competitor. The company has averaged 16% EBIDAT growth the last four years. The company recently came public. In their latest quarter, if you add back the one time charges for coming public, they would have earned 42 cents this quarter. The company recently raised their EBIDAT estimates for this year to 75 to 76 million. Their corporate tax rate is roughly 42 percent. Furthermore, they have an interesting acquisition with WE THE PEOPLE, a document preparation company which specializes in documents for bancruptcies, divorces, wills, living wills and incorporating. This is how I originally got interested n the company as WE THE PEOPLE started in Santa Barbara, where I live, and has grown rapidly. Currently, there are 172 stores, with fifty stores in CA and 30 stores in NY. They are currently located in 32 states. The company thinks the concept can be expanded to Canada and the UK. This is a mini-HR Block type business that could benefit those who don't think they need the services of an attorney. The company states that the current regulatory questions only puts 8 to 10 million at risk. So I think this company offers an interesting risk/reward ratio at its current price of 9.75.

To: Brendan W who wrote (21284)	5/16/2005 4:02:13 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78498

I'll add to my ConocoPhillips (COP) position at current price. Current p/e ~7 ; next year estimate (per Yahoo) ~8.3 2.6% div. yield.

To: Brendan W who wrote (21284)	5/19/2005 3:39:09 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78498

RBK: Brendan Watt, fwiw, I've got Reebok on my watch list since your mention, and I've been hemming and hawing on this one. Downgrade by Prudential today is somewhat strange to me. "The stock has outperformed the group and the market over the last six months." That's so, but the stock has also been dropping, so I wonder why the downgrade comes now. On some measures NKE is also attractive (e.g. relatively low forward p/e). To me it's the old story of what do you want to buy, the powerhouse company in the sector (Nike, with its superior margins), or the relatively cheaper(compared to NKE) RBK (e.g. lower margins than NKE but much better (lower and decent) forward p/e - as you mention). I lean toward starting an exploratory position in RBK, which to me is more a value play; maybe both companies might be buys though at current price. finance.yahoo.com

To: Brendan W who wrote (21284)	5/27/2005 2:22:07 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78498

Brendan Watt, okay, following you into Reebok. Small exploratory position. I'm going back and forth in weighing RBK as a buy. Reebok stock's been a lot lower in past two years, and it may drop still from its current relatively high price. OTOH, the company's been able to increase profit margins every year for the past six. Also ROE has increased every year for the past six. These are significant accomplishments imo. Book value dropped in '96 from '95, but has increased every year since. OTOH, it is (imo) a fashion business with tough competition continually introducing new products. So these good financial numbers work until they don't (if RBK has a bad selling season). OTOH, the forward p/e per Yahoo is 10.6. That is a relatively low p/e for RBK should the earnings materialize. OTOH, given profit margins of 5%, I figure the stock isn't a great buy either - by my reckoning, maybe a fair value around $45. OTOH, if the company can continue growing its numbers, the stock will be further undervalued. The company has sold its Polo operation to Ralph Lauren; that should free up some cash, maybe focus management a bit more, and maybe improve financial ratios. I conclude for me it's iffy, but worth a very small bet now, willing to increase it if or as stock continues to drop. --- Fwiw, still holding SCNYB in this sector. It (the A shares) hit a new low today. I'm waiting - not willing to add shares or sell at this time. finance.yahoo.com

To: Brendan W who wrote (21284)	6/30/2005 7:40:06 PM
From: Brendan W	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78498

Recent Activity. Bought First Marblehead (FMD) at $34 and $39. Per Yahoo, it "...provides outsourcing services for private education lending in the United States. Its integrated suite of design, implementation, and securitization services for student loan programs...." The forward PE is around 12 and it has compounded revenues at 120% the last two years. IMO, the company may benefit from a secular change toward private funding of education loans and it seems to be building a decent moat around its business. The company is designed to not take risk as a lender. The business is complex enough that I don't understand it well enough to put a lot of money in, but it's pretty interesting. Bought St Paul Travelers at $39. PE is under 9 and price to book is about 1.3 without a whole lot of goodwill on the books. Bought the New York Times around $31. Forward PE is about 16. I don't believe NYT is particularly vulnerable to loss of classifieds to the internet and the stock is at a 5 year low. Sold Natuzzi (NTZ) at around $9. Recent news has not been good and I felt fortunate to exit with a small loss. Sold Furniture Brands (FBN) at $21. Buy mentioned here: Message 18522731 Their recent decision to have retail outlets is risky or dubious depending on how much credit you wish to give management. Again, fortunate to exit with small loss. Sold Pier 1 (PIR) at $16.57. Buffett recently bought in but I've held since 9/2001 (buy price: $8.41) and the 2005 and 2006 earnings estimates produced PEs in the 27+ range. Sold Constellation Brands around $30 with a 110% gain. Current year PE is over 18 and it's relatively leveraged. I am more comfortable with BUD and DEO. Sold Lab Corp (LH) at $49 for a 70% gain and Equifax (EFX) at $30 for a 33% gain. (Buys discussed here: Message 19433079 I'm still holding Quest Diagnostics because it's organic revenue growth was less anemic than LH. With regard to EFX I benefitted from some multiple expansion and worried some about the free internet credit report requirements. Sold QC Holdings for a 12% loss (QCCO). Their recent earnings report undercut the growth story and I was chastened by their report that loan loss ratios on their de novo stores were 30 to 35 percent. Buy discussed here: Message 21308167 Closed out my Bennett Environmental (BEL) at around $3. I made 20+ percent because I swing traded it when it bounced above $4. It looks like the company will have to go back to the equity markets again this year the way it's burning cash. I'm interested in reinvesting but not until they have issued the equity or fixed the cash burn. Stocks mentioned: finance.yahoo.com