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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (14884)	5/10/2005 11:55:10 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

I'm still projecting a bottom for the economy and the stock market some time in 2006. The economy may bottom in 2007. October bottoms are popular for the market but that does not mean it will happen this time. Keep in mind that this is just an educated guess based on past economic cycles as they related to typical presidential or election year cycles. I do not think that we will see a repeat of a 90's type stock market any time soon. The bubble mentality has left the stock market for greener pastures in real estate and other areas. Eventually enough institutional dollars will return to this industry to lift stocks for many months in a row just like they did from the October 2002 bottom which is within your 5 year chart. Here is the statement that you made that was incorrect: Hello Paul, if you look at a 5 year chart of AMAT you can see that the stock price has tended to trend down in a hyperbolic fashion since 2000. We've seen lower highs on each successive market/industry rally Now please look again at a FIVE YEAR MONTHLY CHART: stockcharts.com[w,a]maclyiay[d20000510,20051231][pb10!b20!b80!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G The chart clearly shows higher highs and lower lows for a multi month period instead of a down trend during the rally that occurred after the October 2002 bottom. The top for AMAT was in November 2003. Your argument for a downtrend is only valid since November 2003. It certainly has not been a hyperbolic trend down since 2000. There definitely was a multi month advance of higher highs and lower lows although they never led to the heights seen in 2000. Will that happen again any time soon? I certainly don't think so myself but who knows. RtS