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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: profile_14 who wrote (43898)	5/11/2005 12:04:38 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206325

Prof, It's Wednesday well after the open and it seems a good time to go over how the charts have been performing on several energy names we've discussed in the past few weeks. I'm a big fan of follow-up, it has the benefit of eliminating blather and providing a resource from which we can actually learn. Did a chart's previous indications play out? What does the chart say now for the near term future. I would suggest opening up a new window on a 2nd monitor and putting up this chart as a template. As the tickers change you can just type in and compare: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[pb20!b50!f][vc60][iut!Ur14!Ll14]&pref=G 1. OSX. Downtrend intact, 3rd lower high confirmed, ATR volatility beginning to lesson. To see a steady plunge we'd like to see the black ADX line begin to strengthen and rise, confirming the trend. Logical next target on a swing is 127. 2. OIH. (see OSX). Logical next target is 87. 3. XLE. Similar to 1 and 2, but it is forming a descending triangle (4 lower highs, but the last low was a higher low), often a precursor to a steep downside break. A beak on volume through the 40 area will land all the way down at 37.90 or 38.00. Upside is pretty limited on this one, limited or non-existent in the immediate term. 4. XEC. In some ways similar to XLE analysis. Downside target around 33.50. Probabilities to me are that 36 becomes the new ceiling in this stock. 5. BRY. Downtrend intact, threatening new 2005 lows and should achieve them today or in the next few days. Anyone who doubled down on this stock in the 46-47 range should exit that (and all other) positions, or that would be my recommended course of action. Next downside target is 40, after a brief rest-stop at 42. New ceiling will probably be just below here at 45. 6. EGY. As previously analyzed, the confirmed hanging man pattern of 7 days ago predicted a gap and crap and not a breakout, it has now given up all of those ephemeral gains and promises to do more damage on the downside. Hard to pick a target on such an inexpensive stock, but 3.35 should offer some support as will 3.20, but $3.00 flat wouldn't surprise me. 7. ATPG. This one is battling sideways and this $19.50~20 area is for the moment promising to hold. I would note the indicators indicate that the downtrend has not been reversed, though. If I had profits in this name, I'd take them (I'd take the losses, too) and stand aside to wait for a clearer signal. This last item is one reason why academics and others often fail to understand how to use TA tools. The task is simple: protect (first) and enhance capital. In a universe of 8,000 stocks (or 2,000 stocks with options) it is only necessary to commit capital to one name a week or less frequently, not to make a decision on each stock in the entire market. All academic testing programs imply that a signal must be taken--but the tools themselves often give "stand aside," wait for confirmation signals. Add to that position sizing, money management tools, a variety of good exit strategies and growing experience (gut feel) in the markets and you have a fuller picture of what is possible. Kb