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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Hansen who wrote (21742)	5/12/2005 12:33:48 PM
From: stock bull	Respond to of 21876

Looks like LU has broken out of it's down trend and has an excellent chance of going to 3.20 before it encounters resistance. Would like to see more strength in volume, but the indicators are looking good. Stock Bull

To: David Hansen who wrote (21742)	5/17/2005 10:37:27 AM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

LU is a huge rip off at these levels. Remember, without the pension credits, its operating margin is about 1%. Pension credits are great things, but you don't want to pay 18x multiples for them (or whatever multiple LU currently receives). LU's enterprise value (~$16.2B)to trailing sales ($9.2B) is ~1.7x. And LU's cash (excluding the credits) operating margin was about 1%. MOT's EV to trailing sales is ~1.1x, and MOT cash operating margin was about 9%. AV's EV to trailing sales is 0.9x, and AV's cash operating margin was 8%. Why should LU get an EV/trailing sales of 1.7x with when those sales only produced 1% operating profit, when the reasonably well performing comparable stocks get a EV/Sales of ~1.0x? Answer, LU shouldn't! With trailing 12 month sales of $9.2B, LU deserves an enterprise value of ~$9.2B OR LESS, not more. You don't want to pay a multiple on a non-cash pension credit. LU is a house of cards, waiting to collapse in a bad way.