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Strategies & Market Trends : Short Selling, Dark Side, Bubble Busting Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (140)	5/18/2005 1:43:12 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 361

All ETFs I watch are again shortable. Just on Monday RKH and XLY weren't shortable (Reg SHO list)

To: russwinter who wrote (140)	5/18/2005 2:47:16 PM
From: kailuabruddah	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 361

I have been fairly amazed at the HBs not breaking down just yet - too many shorts watching the pot trying to boil? If HGX can close below 475 over the next few days, perhaps we are in a real downtrend (of course a massive break below 452 would sound the sirens): stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G All of the anecdotal evidence/stories/blogs certainly indicates we're in the RE climax blowoff stage - but maybe the HBs need to go back up to their 52-week highs one last time - with perhaps a bit of a parabolic spike thrown in for good measure? This whole RE madness feels like a silly experiment stuck with a positive feedback loop: 1. Interest Rates are low 2. You can buy more house with same monthly payment 3. House prices rise 4. People feel rich / do some cash out re-fi 5. Asian goods consumption goes up 6. Asia recycles dollars into bonds therefore - see number 1. 7. Throw in "creative financial products" (I/O's, Neg-Am's, Hybrids, etc) and this clearly impacts number 2 even more so. 8. Throw in the great idea to buy 2nd/vacation/retirement houses and this also impacts number 2. What will actually cause the start of the end to this madness? Shorting Lucent, Nortel, JDSU, etc was obviously eventually the correct thing to do - but you could have been burned if you started too early... So, are we in March/April of 2000 - or OCT/NOV of 1999?