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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (24972)	5/18/2005 8:58:08 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108787

Amazing statistic, 77% of Americans claim to have NEVER heard of a housing Bubble!: post.polls.yahoo.com Now I know why I feel like the One Eyed King in the Land of the Blind!

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (24972)	5/18/2005 9:10:03 AM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108787

I Don't See Gross's Disinflation as Good For Gold, At All. This subject requires a Round Table discussion, lasting several days. So, in the knowledge that a post on the subject cannot do it justice, let me say this: gold did a pretty good job both anticipating, and tracking, the global reflationary effort led by both Japan and the US. So went the last few years. Gold now either needs a healthy extra dose of that particular action, or, a healthy failure of that effort. Gross's disinflation is not strong enough medicine for gold. Gold needs either a desperate Fed fighting Deflation with enormous pumping, or, a robust systemic failure of that effort. A strong Deflation. The worst for Gold of course is a Volker style Fed, or just the hint of a Volker style Inflation Fighting Fed. (OK, we can agree that possibility is so remote its not even funny.) But Gross's Disinfationary call points to a grayer, plodding, chronic situation where the purchasing power of money is not damaged "enough", where the real returns on bonds is not damaged "enough" and where infaltionary pressures are never quite sustained "enough." Gross is pointing to a chronic no man's land. Not good for gold at all, imo. But perhaps not dire, either. LP PS: Let's not forget Fekete's intriguing thesis that money flows between the two shores of Bonds, and Commodities. If we pair this with Gross's call, you get sort of a chronic half-tide.