SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mary Cluney who wrote (64032)5/21/2005 6:58:33 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Respond to of 74559
 
Mary, that reads like a pean to the British Empire.

Your description is of what has been, and is, not will be. People have great difficulty imagining anything but a linear projection into the future. Unfortunately for them, nature works on a bubbling cauldron, fractalized crystallisation process rather than a straight line of present into the future, despite the indubitable causal relationships linkage to the past.

I'll explain:

<the leadership role that we naturally fulfill.>

Sun of God emperor status, long live the King, natural right to rule, beloved of all at the zenith of their glory. Be very afraid. Hubris comes before a fall. And pride. And who is "we"? Hangers-on and scions of great men often mistake themselves for the producer of the glory. That's tribal affiliation and natural dominance hierarchy attachment. Would you say "we" includes the Jerry Springer crowd scenes? Giggle. I know you know the Jerry Springer crowd does NOT have any innate right or natural role of leadership in the world.

When one is feeling glorious is the time to be most concerned about what comes next.

<There is a leadership vacuum, and we know nature will not let vacuums exist for long. The US will inevitabley fill that vacuum.>

Ah, the inevitable inevitability, albeit misspelled [inevitably being correct] and going wrong before it was even past your fingers on the keyboard. Despite American being the lingua franca. The glories of Manifest Destiny. pbs.org

There are other possibilities than USA Manifest Destiny to be the glory of the world. Most things have a product life cycle. In fact, offhand, I can't think of anything that didn't, though the universe is still only middle-aged and the sun has a billion years to run [so they say].

I'm not sure what the USA's reign will be, but downfalls can come quickly, and usually do, because fear and collapse and destruction are much, much, much quicker acting than a century or two of arduous day by day effort in bit by bit construction of an almost infinitely complex system.

An all-out panic at the prospect of a US$ implosion for example would do the trick in not much longer than an instant. But you have nothing to fear, but fear itself. I'm sure you can control the fear of people around the world. Just threaten them with death, if they look like panicking or otherwise going awol. They should control fear. After all, with the world's biggest and best military by a long, long way, you can order people to do anything, include not being scared.

Meanwhile, not that this is a threat, just a natural event underway, I am planning on the demise of the US$. I expect that the US$ will have zero value in about 20 years, replaced by my new all singing and dancing, complete with bells and whistles, cyberspace currency, run by the people, for the people, not by a clique of Washington central planners enjoying the profits of control, funded by the other 6 billion of us.

<1. We are strategically located between East and West. We border both the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans.>

In a non-dimensional world, a geographic location is meaningless. The idea of oceans as being significant is a quaint 19th century notion, which lasted into the 20th century, like the industrial revolution.

You mean the land mass where most of "we" live. But "we" also live in other countries and more importantly, have investments all over the world and have supplies from all over the world. "We" being Americans, are fully integrated with the rest in a borderless world [borderless for many purposes which are increasingly important].

<2. American English is the de facto global language. All programming languages are rooted in American. All technical manuals that have global relevance have to have an American version.>

Now that's a giggle Mary. American is the lingua franca, but think where American came from and what happened to the people who gave English to the world. It wasn't Americans. Americans were given English by the English and while changing a bit of spelling, kept it.

We the Sheeple of the world can do as we did with English, namely use it and ignore the people who provided it. It's convenient for Americans that American is the lingua franca, but there are more people using English in India than in the USA. Well, that might still be a slight exaggeration, but if I include China, Japan, Europe then I think I'm well ahead in numbers already. So I don't see that leadership inevitably goes to the USA because most people around the world use American.

I've adopted English [or American at times] as my lingo, but that doesn't make me kowtow to Jerry Springer's crowd, or King George II, or even my great idol Uncle Al KBE. I use them for particular purposes, while they are useful. We have a symbiotic deal but I haven't signed up for a lifelong arrangement and neither have they. They might get lazy and I might have to fire them.

<3. We own the intellectual property that cyberspace feeds on eg., Intel, Microsoft, CDMA, google, etc.>

Actually Mary, I own the intellectual property of QUALCOMM [CDMA] along with other shareholders. I paid for it to be developed because I figured out that Fourier transforms in cunning little ASICs would be a good way of moving data through the aether. Jerry Springer's gang doesn't own it - well, they do in that they control the legal system which protects it, and my ownership. They can steal my property, once [some of it]. But that's not really ownership. Theft has been proven around the world to be a very poor way of remaining in a leadership position and often a good way of ending up dead [like Adolf, Saddam, Pol Pot, Idi Amin etc].

I also pay, by taxation, for the legal, police and military systems to protect my property. I pay a LOT of taxes! More than many of the Jerry Springer mob. But I don't get a vote. No taxation without representation say I [I just invented that phrase, but Americans don't seem to like it - I think it has an excellent ring to it].

<4. You may hate it, but the global culture is American - Coca Cola, Starbucks, StarWars (the movie), Mac Donalds, Brad Pits, surfing. For Abba to be recognized globally, they have to sing in American. There is no way any Chinese Pop group that will make it globally can do it if they don't do it in American.>

The global culture isn't actually American. It's Mqurician. I am self-defining and create my own reality, using tools symbiotically provided by millions and billions of other people who are also self-defining. Have you heard of free will? It's a particularly human idea, which parents of 2 year olds learn is an intrinsic part of being human.

The fact that many cultural things adopted by millions and billions have emanated from the USA doesn't mean that is a permanent feature of the cultural landscape. If you visit other countries and wander around their villages, you might be surprised how little the glorious culture of Disneyland has permeated the planet. There's more to culture than what happens on tv. Though Calvin [of Calvin and Hobbes] asserts that reality is defined by tv. If not on tv, it's not real, like a tree falling in a Siberian forest isn't real, or a butterfly taking off in a Siberian forest isn't real, though it could well produce a hurricane in the USA. Look out for those butterflies and falling trees, even though you can't see them or hear them.

<5. Our capitil markets are the biggest and baddest. If you can make it here, you can make it anywhere.>

The capital, the capitil, the Capitol? Pfft. Actually, it's not quite true that "if you can make it here, you can make it anywhere". A guy by the name of Jay Chen has made money helping people "who can make it anywhere" get into China. Then he helps them get out again, licking their wounds and counting their losses.

Yes, it's true that the capital markets, financial instruments, laws, regulators and prisons make the USA a great place to invest and I admire it greatly. And entrusted all our investments to it. It's much better than the rorts of New Zealand for example [though Enron, Worldcon and others show that nowhere is completely safe or trustworthy and one can't depend on bureaucracy completely and should also trust trustworthy people, such as Irwin Jacobs, rather than institutions].

Other places are pretty good too.

<But, I shouldn't really underestimate George Bush. If anybody can screw it up for us it is the Bush, Cheney, and Rove team.

Give them another term or two in office, and you are not going to recognise the landscape.
>

They are okay. I quite like King George II in many ways. I don't think he's going to play a big part in the transition to the USA as being just another also-ran in life's long history. Speaking of which - rant here on "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing", from another King, from a time gone by ... Message 21341288

<<Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
SIGNIFYING nothing.

--MacBeth V.v. >

>

It's later than you think Mary. And that's my Sunday sermon.

Mqurice



To: Mary Cluney who wrote (64032)5/21/2005 9:25:12 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hello Mary, thank you for writing what must be the funniest piece of wishful hoping I have ever read. A hoot.

Let me take it apart, head from shoulders, word by word:


<<1. We are strategically located between East and West. We border both the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans>>

... is irrelevant, and merely guarantees that there will be trouble from all sides, everywhere, all at inconvenient times. When sitting in an unfamiliar restaurant, always have back to wall, close to emergency exit, because one has no idea what is coming from where and when.

<<2. American English is the de facto global language>>

Is also irrelevant, as there are better English speakers in Shanghai than there are in NYC.

<<All programming languages are rooted in American>>

... totally wrong, as the underlying logic and overarching rationale is math, and ... well ... Public School #16 does not turn out math stars.

<<All technical manuals that have global relevance have to have an American version>>

... utter rubbish, since the English standard by which the US tries to export machine tools is playing a great but unrealized part in terminating the US machine tool industry.

<<3. We own the intellectual property that cyberspace feeds on eg., Intel, Microsoft, CDMA, google, etc.>>

... IP? you mean the stuff that a Japanese-branded and Chinese-made xerox machine can take care of? There is that word, 'xerox', that can be left with the 'owners' ;0)

<<4. You may hate it, but the global culture is American - Coca Cola, Starbucks, StarWars (the movie), Mac Donalds, Brad Pits, surfing. For Abba to be recognized globally, they have to sing in American>>

... absolutely wrong. I love it all. But it 'all' is 'all' just pop culture, as 'all' meat loaf is not 'all' Peking Duck.

<<There is no way any Chinese Pop group that will make it globally can do it if they don't do it in American>>

... LOL. how do you know 'all' this? by simply living within 'all' of the last 50 years? You used the word 'Pop' correctly, but that is not a basis for sustainable advantage, but merely a sound that a squeeze will make, resulting in squish :0)

<<5. Our capitil markets are the biggest and baddest. If you can make it here, you can make it anywhere.>>

... totally wrong. Making it in laid back and quiet NYC does not mean ability to survive the intensity of Shanghai or the convolution that is Hong Kong. The truth is precisly the reverse of what you claim.

Must try to gain an understanding of the rule-less nature of the animal spirit and primal dynamism of what is happening out here, first by learning the nuanced language, and then pick up on the complex culture.

This is the just and deserving beauty of TeoTwawKi's approach, unexpected, out of the ordinary, and yet, just will be.

Chugs, J

P.S. BTW, the reason that I do not live in China proper, which I stated many times, is because I am unable to compete effectively there, in the midst of so many very hungry and extremely astute folks. Now that they are institutionally freed to perform to their abilities, I intend to be even more shy.

I would not even think of entering India with moolah and initiatives, for there are another 1.odd billion very hungry and totally astute folks out for my lunch tray



To: Mary Cluney who wrote (64032)5/21/2005 10:00:20 PM
From: Condor  Respond to of 74559
 
American English is the de facto global language. All programming languages are rooted in American.

ROFL

Now this language called American English, it would not resemble Latin or Farzi or, god forbid, English would it?

I presume there is American walking also?

For Abba to be recognized globally, they have to sing in American.

The icing on the cake. Thanks for making my day.



To: Mary Cluney who wrote (64032)5/21/2005 11:46:56 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum  Respond to of 74559
 
Mary,
The US had the highest standard of living ... the most dough etc... kinda like Britain used to be... you should realise (oh BTW that's realize in American ;O) after the big rebalancing is done .... well... there won't be as much 'American' stuff... probably more Chinese stuff... In a generation or two the top pop stars may be singing in Mandarin, Urdu or Hindi.. times change.. It may take longer for the pop stars though heck some of the biggest came outta Brittain ... even after it faded...

JMHO
Kastel



To: Mary Cluney who wrote (64032)5/22/2005 1:16:49 AM
From: Lizzie Tudor  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
Allow me to chime in, I see there are 4 retorts to your post.

I had to do a study about 6 mos ago about whether it was cost effective for a UK company to do business in Quebec. It is a software company- to sell in the francophone markets you need to localize everything to a point that can mind-boggling (ie try to determine the french word for "kludge" or "software breakpoint") or else face hefty fines. This was a new research project for me, I had never thought about the worldwide penetration of linguistics and language before, but in the back of my mind I assumed some asian language would eventually dominate world speech as english fell out of favor, just due to the population issue.

Anyway what I discovered is that the people who really study linguistics (who are in Japan for the most part) look at one primary differentiator as to which language is likely to gain in usage and dominate- and that is the language where the most new words are being created. That language for now is english by far (no differentiation between US and UK english)- because the technical words are the new words and those are almost all in english. Ex- words/phrases like kludge, bang (meaning "alert"), gui etc are on this watchlist and if they hang around for a while, they get added to the global list of words and the new words tend to migrate to the other languages in their native form, so there might be a chinese term "gui" pronounced gui in chinese, but it is unlikely that a word for Gui will emerge in native Cantonese, for example.

So your post #2 agrees completely with my research.

Now, if the US loses the new industries to china/india, which may well happen especially if Bush hangs around, then those countries will drive innovation and then all bets are off. But for now, with US companies leading in innovation, english looks to dominate.