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To: TobagoJack who wrote (64050)	5/22/2005 9:52:51 AM
From: el_gaviero	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Tabago Jack, As always, a great post, but I’m afraid I don’t share your enthusiasm about China, or your general point of view. We nasty ole Euro types are going to win this one too, post-TeoTwawKi, although it’s not going to be relevant because post-TeoTwawki, East is going back to being East, and West is going back to being West, and the two are going back to not meeting so damn much. First and foremost, the idea that China thinks “for the long term” verges on lunacy. China clearly is not thinking at all. How else do you explain her basic, fundamental strategy, which is, with suitable modifications, to follow the American model of industrialization? What’s wrong with that, you say --- since the American model is not exactly an aesthetic paragon but it WORKS. Ah, yes, it does, when conditions are present that make it possible to work. But those conditions don’t exist any longer. The American model ITSELF changed them. When America embarked on her strategy of industrialization, the world sat at the bottom of Hubbert’s peak, next to a trillion barrels of oil, allowing Americans without a moment’s reflection to use oil up to present levels of 25-28 barrels per person per year. Now China comes along and chooses the same strategy, which means: the Chinese are building roads like our Interstates (so I read), are selling millions of cars a year (so I read), are banning bicycles, are putting distance between where they live and where they work, etc. etc. Trouble is, there is simply NO WAY China is going to be able to push per capita per year oil consumption much above present levels (1.5 to 2 barrels). Hell, they won’t even be able to reach Mexico’s level (5 to 8 barrels), let alone levels of use in S. Korea or Taiwan (around 15). China is already straining the energy supply system of the planet, and is hardly hitting her stride. There is simply no future in what China is trying to do. The American model, even the Chinese version of it, is headed for the junk heap --- in America, in China, in Brazil, everywhere. So, why are we nasty Euro types going to win yet again? You’ve already given the explanation. The brightest and the best in China are working hard to get out of steerage and into better accommodations --- but they are still on the Titanic. In this country, in the good ole USA, our peasants and dolts long ago crept out of steerage and took over. They of course don’t have a clue about how to run things, and are doing what peasants do in the absence of their betters --- turn to a shambles all that they paw and grasp with their big clumsy hands. What does this mean with respect to the big (probably energy-related) TeoTwawki moment? In China, the brightest and the best are going to see their plans thwarted, and maybe more. They are going to see that they were sold a bill of goods --- that there never was much of a chance of getting out of steerage. They are not going to be happy, but will be ineffective because totally unprepared for the nature of the problems that they are going to have to face. On the other hand, in this country, the peasants and dolts (i.e. the Bush & Kerry types & their supporters) are going to be discredited, while the best among us are going to be vindicated. The plans that the best among us have been making all along are going to begin to be put into action. Some of these plans will work, which means, at least for a while, the best will be on top. When you have your best on top (which I think is actually rather rare in human affairs) you have about as healthy a situation as you can ask for.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (64050)	5/22/2005 10:48:34 AM
From: Joe S Pack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Here is a simple example which can be magnified further. Considerable number of doctors who came to US from India have a very nice standard of living and earnings. It will be impossible for them to survive in India. It is not because of the US health care system which allows everybody (meaning three gangs: drug companies, doctors and insurance) to milk to the max, the entire competition is so brutal that most of them will not have decent clients nor living. I would not even think of entering India with moolah and initiatives, for there are another 1.odd billion very hungry and totally astute folks out for my lunch tray

To: TobagoJack who wrote (64050)	6/17/2005 10:43:54 AM
From: Pogeu Mahone	Respond to of 74559

Well put. -------------------------------------- P.S. BTW, the reason that I do not live in China proper, which I stated many times, is because I am unable to compete effectively there, in the midst of so many very hungry and extremely astute folks. Now that they are institutionally freed to perform to their abilities, I intend to be even more shy. I would not even think of entering India with moolah and initiatives, for there are another 1.odd billion very hungry and totally astute folks out for my lunch tray