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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: el_gaviero who wrote (64068)5/22/2005 4:30:11 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Great post El G. But what are those plans? <The plans that the best among us have been making all along are going to begin to be put into action. Some of these plans will work, which means, at least for a while, the best will be on top.>

It seems to me that plenty of talented people are doing things in the USA [Irwin Jacobs et al, Uncle Al KBE, Ellison and co, Gates Gangsters, George Gilder and a whole swarm of them].

Good point about China's limited prospects with industrialisation.

They are working for low pay in the industrial revolution. That's not the way to lead the world. Britain got wealthy from the industrial revolution and being the workshop of the world because they were leading that revolution and pay rates in the revolution were TOP pay rates, while the peasantry struggled with growing hay and knitting wool.

Unless China comes up with creative leadership, they'll remain an also-ran, in competition with India, Indonesia and Africa as low-paid manufacturers.

Meanwhile, people who can will leave for lives of [relative] freedom, where the police aren't watching every move and gaoling them for saying the wrong thing.

On oil, the cost today of producing a barrel of bioethanol or biodiesel or photovoltaic hydrogen is about the same as the cost of the barrels of oil which fed the 1930s [if I remember rightly] if split-adjusted.

So there's no reason why China can't use umpty billion barrels of energy in the form of nuclear power, deserts and roofs covered with photovoltaics, Australia covered in crops, or Africa covered in crops. There is vast amounts of Orinoco heavy oil and vast amounts of coal.

There is no shortage of energy to fuel anything people want to do. At $50 a barrel, we are up to the level where biofuels are economic. Look at Brazil go for example. It's not just subsidies fueling the biofuels now. The old idea that they use more energy than is got out is not true. People used to do energy balances instead of dollar balances. It was easy to cook the books with energy balances. Dollars are more precisely pinned down.

Mqurice



To: el_gaviero who wrote (64068)5/22/2005 5:43:19 PM
From: Condor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hello el gaviero,

That was a great post and you had me hooked bigtime as I thoroughly enjoyed the vision but like coitus interruptis (I presume <g>) it was disappointing in that you never followed through with the rationalization as to why The Euro lads will overcome.

Witness the following from your post:

So, why are we nasty Euro types going to win yet again?

You’ve already given the explanation. The brightest and the best in China are working hard to get out of steerage and into better accommodations --- but they are still on the Titanic.

In this country, in the good ole USA, our peasants and dolts long ago crept out of steerage and took over. They of course don’t have a clue about how to run things, and are doing what peasants do in the absence of their betters --- turn to a shambles all that they paw and grasp with their big clumsy hands.


WHERE'S THE MEAT?

Thanks for the fun.

Regards

C@Ifeelsoflamencosaying"el-gaviero".com



To: el_gaviero who wrote (64068)5/22/2005 7:15:13 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hello el_gaviero, It is good that you actually bothered to read through my post, and given the comment regarding <<as always>>, then posts. I need the feedback and the correction of views expressed, always, lest I make a mistake. Polite discussion and thoughtful feedback are always welcome.

Now, to your points, I will just take the first and last one, and leave the stuffing in the middle for homework.

<<China clearly is not thinking at all>>
... and may she always not think exactly as now.

<<On the other hand, in this country, the peasants and dolts (i.e. the Bush & Kerry types & their supporters) are going to be discredited, while the best among us are going to be vindicated>>
... the system produced the, as you called them, 'peasants and dolts', and the system is not the one put together by the founding fathers and mothers. To hope that the 'peasants and dolts' will be discredited, it means that the system itself is put away. We are witnessing the system getting stronger, as in not weaker, starting with finger printing machines installations underway in some public libraries, and concurrently, the sheltering of obviously known terrorists by the administration.

I will not even start on the rest of the financial complex and empire strikes back goings on. But you do see that the system is getting better and stronger in what it has to do, as it goes about blaming all the problems it has caused on the diligent work and frugal savings of peasants far away. There appears to be no shame to the system, as the swaying and linking of hands goes on with the many, standing in absolute solidarity and firm opposition against the admittedly few and, in your view, the best.

Speaking of the many, here is a piece of reflection by NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF, one of many guiding sages for the masses, unless he is one of the best, along with Mr. Friedman, in your schema. Either way, there appears little to be alarmed about, and I can remain enthusiastic for the cyclical coming of TeoTwawKi and hold to my observations regarding everything.

Op-Ed Columnist
China, the World's Capital


From Kaifeng to New York, glory is as ephemeral as smoke and clouds.

By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
Published: May 22, 2005
KAIFENG, China

As this millennium dawns, New York City is the most important city in the world, the unofficial capital of planet Earth. But before we New Yorkers become too full of ourselves, it might be worthwhile to glance at dilapidated Kaifeng in central China.

Kaifeng, an ancient city along the mud-clogged Yellow River, was by far the most important place in the world in 1000. And if you've never heard of it, that's a useful warning for Americans - as the Chinese headline above puts it, in a language of the future that many more Americans should start learning, "glory is as ephemeral as smoke and clouds."

As the world's only superpower, America may look today as if global domination is an entitlement. But if you look back at the sweep of history, it's striking how fleeting supremacy is, particularly for individual cities.

My vote for most important city in the world in the period leading up to 2000 B.C. would be Ur, Iraq. In 1500 B.C., perhaps Thebes, Egypt. There was no dominant player in 1000 B.C., though one could make a case for Sidon, Lebanon. In 500 B.C., it would be Persepolis, Persia; in the year 1, Rome; around A.D. 500, maybe Changan, China; in 1000, Kaifeng, China; in 1500, probably Florence, Italy; in 2000, New York City; and in 2500, probably none of the above.

Today Kaifeng is grimy and poor, not even the provincial capital and so minor it lacks even an airport. Its sad state only underscores how fortunes change. In the 11th century, when it was the capital of Song Dynasty China, its population was more than one million. In contrast, London's population then was about 15,000.

An ancient 17-foot painted scroll, now in the Palace Museum in Beijing, shows the bustle and prosperity of ancient Kaifeng. Hundreds of pedestrians jostle each other on the streets, camels carry merchandise in from the Silk Road, and teahouses and restaurants do a thriving business.

Kaifeng's stature attracted people from all over the world, including hundreds of Jews. Even today, there are some people in Kaifeng who look like other Chinese but who consider themselves Jewish and do not eat pork.

As I roamed the Kaifeng area, asking local people why such an international center had sunk so low, I encountered plenty of envy of New York. One man said he was arranging to be smuggled into the U.S. illegally, by paying a gang $25,000, but many local people insisted that China is on course to bounce back and recover its historic role as world leader.

"China is booming now," said Wang Ruina, a young peasant woman on the outskirts of town. "Give us a few decades and we'll catch up with the U.S., even pass it."

She's right. The U.S. has had the biggest economy in the world for more than a century, but most projections show that China will surpass us in about 15 years, as measured by purchasing power parity.

So what can New York learn from a city like Kaifeng?

One lesson is the importance of sustaining a technological edge and sound economic policies. Ancient China flourished partly because of pro-growth, pro-trade policies and technological innovations like curved iron plows, printing and paper money. But then China came to scorn trade and commerce, and per capita income stagnated for 600 years.

A second lesson is the danger of hubris, for China concluded it had nothing to learn from the rest of the world - and that was the beginning of the end.

I worry about the U.S. in both regards. Our economic management is so lax that we can't confront farm subsidies or long-term budget deficits. Our technology is strong, but American public schools are second-rate in math and science. And Americans' lack of interest in the world contrasts with the restlessness, drive and determination that are again pushing China to the forefront.

Beside the Yellow River I met a 70-year-old peasant named Hao Wang, who had never gone to a day of school. He couldn't even write his name - and yet his progeny were different.

"Two of my grandsons are now in university," he boasted, and then he started talking about the computer in his home.

Thinking of Kaifeng should stimulate us to struggle to improve our high-tech edge, educational strengths and pro-growth policies. For if we rest on our laurels, even a city as great as New York may end up as Kaifeng-on-the-Hudson.

Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company